Conservatives News

Jeremy Balfour Quits Tory as Reform Support Hits 31%, Corbyn’s Party Gains 28% Labour Members and Plans Scottish Branch

1 year ago

Abacus Poll Puts Poilievre Conservatives Ahead as Affordability Angst Grows

Canada

Politics

World

Abacus Poll Puts Poilievre Conservatives Ahead as Affordability Angst Grows

1 year ago

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

25.42%chance

287870

OptionVotes

YES

3461

1125

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

10.26%chance

217537

OptionVotes

YES

2958

338

When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?

Apr 12, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

336819

OptionProbability

After 2070 (or never)

2036-2040

2029-2035

2061-2065

2041-2045

2046-2050

2066-2070

By 2028

2051-2055

2056-2060

Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?

Jul 10, 3:40 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

68.69%chance

346103

OptionVotes

YES

2316

858

Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

68.65%chance

315872

OptionVotes

YES

1081

547

How many seats will the UK Conservative Party win at the next general election?

Jul 14, 7:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

252795

OptionProbability

>=50

>=100

>=150

>=200

>=250

>=300

>=325

Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?

Jul 31, 2:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.08%chance

282497

OptionVotes

YES

2140

467

Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?

Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.5%chance

272381

OptionVotes

YES

1733

884

Will the Conservative Party still exist in 2044?

Jan 18, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.92%chance

171044

OptionVotes

YES

972

933

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.26%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

1059

954

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

11571

OptionVotes

YES

1322

912

Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?

Dec 12, 11:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.83%chance

12227

OptionVotes

YES

1074

941

Latest stories

Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
Canada
Politics
World
Abacus Poll Puts Poilievre Conservatives Ahead as Affordability Angst Grows
Authors
4
1 year ago
Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
Jeremy Balfour Quits Tory as Reform Support Hits 31%, Corbyn’s Party Gains 28% Labour Members and Plans Scottish Branch
Authors
7
1 year ago

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Prediction markets for Conservatives

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Prediction markets for Conservatives

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?

Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?

Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?

How many seats will the UK Conservative Party win at the next general election?

Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?

Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?

Will the Conservative Party still exist in 2044?

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?

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