The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model now projects U.S. gross domestic product to rise at an annualised 2.2% pace in the third quarter of 2025, a marginal slowdown from the 2.3% rate estimated last week. According to the update released on 26 August, residential investment and net exports remain the only components exerting a drag on growth, while other categories such as consumer spending and business investment continue to contribute positively. The latest nowcast comes ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate of second-quarter GDP, scheduled for release at 12:30 p.m. New York time. Economists surveyed anticipate the bureau will revise growth down to a 0.5% contraction from the previously reported 3.1% expansion, underscoring a sharp loss of momentum heading into the summer quarter. While the GDPNow figure is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, it is closely watched by investors and policymakers for an early read on economic activity. The next model update is set for 29 August.