The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model on 5 August lifted its forecast for US real gross domestic product growth to an annualised 2.5% for the third quarter, up from 2.1% a week earlier. The revision followed fresh data on wholesale trade, services activity and international commerce. Underlying model details show estimated growth in real personal consumption expenditures improving to 2.0% from 1.6%, while projected growth in real gross private domestic investment advanced to 6.9% from 6.3%. The model now sees net exports subtracting 0.36 percentage point from growth, a slightly larger drag than the earlier 0.30-point estimate. Earlier in the day, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index edged down to 50.1 in July, narrowly signalling expansion but missing economists’ expectations for 51.5. Sub-indexes for export and import orders both slipped into contraction, with survey respondents citing the impact of tariffs, while the prices-paid gauge jumped to 69.9, the highest reading since October 2022. The contrasting signals leave a mixed picture: the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast points to moderate momentum, yet some private forecasters—including Goldman Sachs, which raised its own tracker to 1.2%—see slower third-quarter growth as firms grapple with weaker trade flows and rising input costs.