Looking for honest opinions...why is the 10-year UST yield making local highs, despite Powell's ridiculous 50 bps cut? Also, appreciate comments below...
Morgan Stanley: Discussions Keep Returning To Whether The 50bps Rate Cut Was A Policy Mistake https://t.co/T4HGD5e6Ao
**Most clients thought the 50bp Sep cut was unwarranted. **Cuts in Nov and Dec are still consensus (though some raised the possibility of a Dec pause). **For 2025, however, many thought that markets are overpricing cuts. https://t.co/oVTDVbU6Gy
Central banks globally are accelerating rate cuts amid economic stagnation. The European Central Bank (ECB) is notably aggressive, with euro money markets implying a 20% chance of a 0.50% reduction in December and almost fully pricing in 0.25% cuts at every meeting through April. Markets are pricing significant rate cuts through end-2025: -160 basis points for Canada, -150 basis points for the US, UK, Sweden, and New Zealand, -140 basis points for the Eurozone, -80 basis points for Switzerland, and -60 basis points for Australia. The ECB is considered the most mis-priced. Despite these cuts, real long-term yields are not decreasing, indicating that financial conditions remain tight and there is no positive impulse to growth. Bank of America's clients have shifted to a more hawkish stance following the September jobs report and GDP/GDI revisions, questioning the timing and necessity of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. Cuts in November and December are still consensus, though some raised the possibility of a December pause. Morgan Stanley discussions continue to question whether the 50bps rate cut was a policy mistake.