The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day (bpd) but raised its 2026 demand growth forecast to 1.38 million bpd from 1.28 million bpd, citing stronger economies in the OECD, Middle East, and Africa. Meanwhile, OPEC trimmed its 2026 forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth to 630,000 bpd from 730,000 bpd. In contrast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth estimate to approximately 680,000-685,000 bpd from previous forecasts near 700,000 bpd and reduced its 2026 demand growth forecast to 700,000 bpd from 720,000 bpd. The IEA also raised its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.5 million bpd from 2.1 million bpd following OPEC+ production increases and increased its 2026 supply growth forecast to 1.9 million bpd from 1.3 million bpd. This combination of slowing demand growth and rising supply is expected to create a record global oil supply surplus in 2026, with inventories accumulating at rates surpassing those seen during the pandemic. Oil prices have responded by holding steady near $63 a barrel but slipped below that level following a rise in U.S. crude inventories to a two-month high. Market participants are also closely watching upcoming talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding Ukraine, which could influence potential U.S. sanctions relief for Russia and impact oil supply dynamics.