The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2025 crude-oil production outlook to a record 13.41 million barrels a day while trimming its 2026 estimate to 13.28 million, marking what it says will be the first annual decline in U.S. output since 2021. The revised forecasts were released in the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook on 12 August. The EIA also lifted its projection for global supply to 105.4 million barrels a day next year and 106.4 million in 2026. With supply expected to outpace demand, the agency cut its average West Texas Intermediate price forecast to $63.58 a barrel for 2025 and $47.77 for 2026; Brent is seen averaging $67.22 and $51.43, respectively. Bearish fundamentals were reinforced a day later when government data showed an unexpected 3.0 million-barrel build in U.S. crude inventories, pushing WTI futures down about a dollar to roughly $63 a barrel, their lowest level since May. Adding to the pressure, the International Energy Agency warned in its monthly report that the world may face a record oil surplus in 2026 as demand growth slows and OPEC+ output ramps up. Traders are now watching Friday’s meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin for any signal on sanctions that could further influence supply.