Aug 19, 10:44 PM

Goldman Sachs Estimates BLS to Cut U.S. Jobs by Up to 950,000 in Largest 15-Year Revision Ahead of Fed Meeting

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release its annual benchmark revision to nonfarm payroll data on September 9, 2025. According to estimates from Goldman Sachs, this revision could reduce previously reported payroll figures by between 550,000 and 950,000 jobs for the 12-month period ending in March 2025. This would represent the largest downward revision to U.S. job numbers in 15 years. Over a two-year span, the total downward adjustment could reach approximately 1.5 million jobs. Data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) indicates that nonfarm payrolls were overstated by roughly 88,888 jobs per month during the nine months ending December 2024. Last year’s benchmark revision, which lowered payroll counts by 818,000 jobs, was the largest negative adjustment since 2009 and preceded a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The upcoming BLS revision comes one week before the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on September 17, 2025, where the Fed is expected to decide on interest rate policy. Market analysts suggest the revision could influence the Fed to consider a larger rate cut than previously anticipated.

#Goldman Sachs #Federal Reserve #Federal Open Market Committee #Fed

Written with ChatGPT (GPT-4).