The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls on 9 September, updating employment counts for the 12 months through March 2025. Goldman Sachs estimates the recalibration could lower previously reported payrolls by 550,000 to 950,000 positions, implying monthly job growth was overstated by as much as 80,000 during the period. If the estimate proves accurate, it would mark the largest 12-month downward adjustment to payrolls in 15 years and could push the cumulative two-year revision to about 1.5 million jobs. The prospective cut follows last year’s benchmark revision that trimmed 818,000 jobs and comes as the three-month average gain in payrolls has already slowed to roughly 35,000, the weakest pace outside the pandemic since 2010. The revision is scheduled eight days before the Federal Open Market Committee convenes on 17 September. Goldman Sachs says the prospect of softer historical employment data, coupled with a recent deceleration in hiring, increases the likelihood the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in the coming meetings to shore up a cooling labor market.