The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook lifts its forecast for global GDP expansion in 2025 to 3.0%, two-tenths of a point higher than the April estimate, and edges up the 2026 projection to 3.1%. The Fund attributes the stronger outlook to a weaker U.S. dollar, front-loaded imports ahead of tariff deadlines and a lower effective tariff rate than previously assumed. The upgrade is broad-based. Growth in emerging and developing economies is now seen at 4.1% for 2025, up from 3.7%, led by China’s revision to 4.8%. The IMF puts U.S. growth next year at 1.9% and pegs the euro-area at 1.0%. World trade volumes are expected to rise 2.6% in 2025—almost a full percentage point higher than earlier projected—before slowing to 1.9% in 2026. The Fund now assumes the U.S. effective tariff rate at 17.3%, down from 24.4% in April, with the rest of the world’s rate at 3.5%. Even so, Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that the global economy “is weakening and remains vulnerable to trade shocks,” urging governments to resolve disputes. Headline inflation is projected to ease to 4.2% next year and 3.6% in 2026, but the IMF cautioned that renewed tariff increases or geopolitical tensions could derail the baseline.