Nomura Expects Fed to Start Rate Cuts in September

Nomura Holdings’ economists have brought forward their outlook for U.S. monetary easing, predicting the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates with a 25-basis-point move in September 2025. The bank now expects additional quarter-point reductions in December and again in March, marking a shift from its earlier call for a single cut in December. The change reflects Nomura’s assessment that the U.S. labour market is losing momentum and that inflation risks have receded sufficiently for policymakers to start unwinding some of last cycle’s tightening. The new timeline positions Nomura among the earlier forecasts for Fed action as investors watch incoming economic data for confirmation.