Interest-rate derivatives show investors increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve will ease policy twice before the end of 2025, a view that firmed after disappointing private-sector payroll figures earlier this month and largely held following Tuesday’s U.S. inflation release. CME FedWatch places the chance of a rate cut at the July 30–31 meeting at just 2.6%, but assigns roughly 60% odds to a quarter-point reduction in September, leaving markets almost evenly divided on whether the central bank moves then or later in the year. June consumer prices rose 2.7% from a year earlier and the core index climbed 2.9%, broadly matching forecasts and reinforcing expectations that the Fed can begin lowering borrowing costs once officials are confident price pressures are contained. Futures now imply at least half a percentage point of cumulative easing by December 2025 despite policymakers signalling they want additional confirmation that inflation is returning to target. North of the border, swaps price only a 13%—and, according to some estimates, as little as 10%—probability that the Bank of Canada cuts rates at its July 30 meeting, little changed after data showed Canadian inflation quickened to 1.9% in June. Markets now see less than a quarter-point of total BoC easing over the remainder of the year.