OPEC left its projection for global oil demand growth in 2025 unchanged at 1.29 million barrels a day (b/d) but raised the 2026 growth forecast by 100,000 b/d to 1.38 million b/d, according to the group’s monthly Oil Market Report released Tuesday. The cartel also trimmed its estimate for supply growth from producers outside the OPEC+ alliance next year to 630,000 b/d, down from 730,000 b/d, suggesting a tighter balance later in the forecast horizon. Actual production is already climbing. OPEC+ crude output averaged 41.94 million b/d in July, an increase of 335,000 b/d from June after the alliance accelerated previously agreed quota increases. The group maintained its view that global economic growth will reach 3 % in 2025, up slightly from last month’s estimate, underpinning the higher demand outlook. Across the Atlantic, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projected domestic crude production will hit a record 13.41 million b/d in 2025 before easing to 13.28 million b/d in 2026, the first annual decline since 2021. The agency also lifted its forecast for world oil output, expecting a surplus of 1.64 million b/d in 2025 and 1.44 million b/d in 2026—figures that contrast with OPEC’s tighter-market assessment. Reflecting the anticipated oversupply, the EIA cut its average Brent price outlook to $67.22 a barrel for 2025 and $51.43 for 2026, both down roughly $2 and $7 respectively from last month. West Texas Intermediate is seen averaging $63.58 in 2025 and $47.77 in 2026. The diverging outlooks underscore the uncertainty facing producers as OPEC+ seeks to regain market share while U.S. shale output approaches all-time highs.