The US stock market, represented by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ($SPY), has experienced notable underperformance relative to global peers in April 2025. Since the beginning of President Trump's term in January, the US market ranks as the second or third worst performer among 45 country ETFs. In April alone, the S&P 500 has declined by approximately 8.1%, while a comparable measure of international stocks has only dipped 0.4%, marking the largest monthly lag for US equities against global peers in 32 years. The S&P 500 has underperformed the MSCI All Country World Ex-US Index by 7.7% this month, a disparity not seen even during the 2007-2009 recession. Investor confidence in US stocks has diminished significantly, with net exposure among 164 investors managing $386 billion in assets dropping by 53 percentage points over two months, the largest recorded decline. These investors are currently 36% underweight US equities, the lowest exposure since May 2023. Systematic traders and macro hedge funds have reduced their US equity exposure to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating a broad de-risking trend. Despite this, some hedge funds retain capacity to increase long positions if market conditions improve. Comparatively, other major country ETFs such as India (+3.8%), Mexico (+6.4%), Argentina (+6.0%), Japan (+1.5%), and Germany (+1.7%) have posted gains since early April, while China and the US have seen declines of approximately 6.0% and 6.6%, respectively. The overall market environment in April has been described as the worst for US equities since the Great Depression, with international stocks showing positive returns during the same period.
Wow. Systematic macro hedge funds have reduced exposure to US equities to levels not seen since the COVID crash. They sure have a lot of buying to do if the market stays bid. Chart: Goldman Sachs https://t.co/L83TmDZu1m
"Worst April since the Great Depression" earlier this week. $SPY is now -3.4% so far this month Oh, and international stocks are positive in April. $EFA $VEU $VWO $EEM https://t.co/t9EBkOxXdi
Hedge fund net positioning has been reduced considerably. You can see the big wave of de-risking that started in February and bottomed out in early March from these market participants. They have plenty of room to buy back long exposure now. Chart: Goldman Sachs https://t.co/5frR8007Hx