In July 2025, key U.S. manufacturing and economic indicators showed mixed but generally positive trends. The New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to +5.5, surpassing expectations of -8.3 and marking its highest level since February 2025. Similarly, the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index jumped to 15.9, well above the forecast of -1.0 and previous reading of -4.0, reaching its highest since February. This increase was supported by improvements in new orders (+18.4), shipments (+23.7), workweek (+0.4), and employment (+10.3). Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's preliminary July survey reported a rise in consumer sentiment to 61.8, slightly above the estimated 61.5, with current conditions at 66.8 and expectations at 58.6. Inflation expectations declined, with the one-year outlook falling to 4.4% from 5.0% and the five- to ten-year outlook decreasing to 3.6% from 4.0%, both the lowest since February. However, June durable goods orders unexpectedly dropped by 9.3% month-over-month, though this was less severe than the forecasted 10.7% decline and followed a 16.4% increase in May. Excluding transportation, orders rose by 0.2%, slightly above estimates. Core capital goods orders excluding aircraft declined by 0.7%, indicating cautious business investment amid ongoing trade and fiscal policy uncertainties. The Chicago National Activity Index and Kansas City Fed Composite Index also showed modest improvements, with readings of -0.1 and 1.0 respectively, while the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index decreased to -3 from a previous 5.
Durable goods orders ex-transport +0.2% rise above +0.1% estimates. via Bloomberg https://t.co/eLRsocVoWi
Los pedidos de bienes duraderos en EE.UU. bajaron inesperadamente en junio. La incertidumbre política y comercial frena la inversión empresarial. https://t.co/iuBU82QAdg
MACRO: 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders fell the most since 2020, -9.3% MoM, though less than expected at -10.4%. https://t.co/s1pOjBaXRP