Japan's economic indicators for May and June showed mixed signals with slight improvements in some areas and declines in others. The Leading Index for May registered at 105.3, above the expected 105.2 and higher than April's 104.2, but a later revision showed a fall to 104.8. The Coincident Index increased marginally to 116.0 from 115.9, indicating slight economic improvement. The Eco Watchers Survey for June reported an outlook score of 45.9, surpassing estimates of 45.3 and the previous 44.8, reflecting modestly improved economic optimism. Foreign investment in Japanese stocks surged to 571.9 billion yen, up from 446.0 billion yen previously, while foreign investment in Japanese bonds declined sharply to -990.7 billion yen from a prior 170.4 billion yen. Japan also announced a special liquidity auction offering 0.5 trillion yen in Japanese Government Bonds. In the United States, the June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index stood at 98.6, matching forecasts but slightly below the previous 98.8, with increases in hiring plans and selling prices offset by lower economic expectations and compensation plans. July manufacturing data showed a notable rebound, with the New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index rising to 5.5 from -16.0 and surpassing an estimate of -8.3, marking the highest level since February 2025. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 15.9, well above the expected -1.0 and prior -4.0, with improvements in new orders, shipments, workweek, and employment. The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index edged up to 50.3 in July, the highest since September 2022, despite a divergence between employment contracting and new orders expanding. Prices paid in the Kansas City Fed index eased slightly, but the six-month outlook remained unchanged. The Chicago National Activity Index for July was slightly negative at -0.1 but better than forecasts and previous readings.
Prices paid (blue) component in @KansasCityFed Manufacturing Index eased a bit in July, but 6-month outlook was still stretched and remained unchanged https://t.co/FgeWySf57Q
Huge gap in July between employment (blue) and new orders (orange) components in @KansasCityFed Manufacturing Index, with former sinking further into contraction and latter moving into expansion https://t.co/oZRvEVFPjY
Adjusted using ISM methodology, @KansasCityFed Manufacturing Index moved up to 50.3 in July … highest since September 2022 https://t.co/QTCOcKnlbF