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May 10, 01:30 PM
US Investors Bearish With $9.3B Equity Outflows, 49% Expect Lower Stocks, 72% See Recession, Job Openings Drop
Economics
Stocks
Business

US Investors Bearish With $9.3B Equity Outflows, 49% Expect Lower Stocks, 72% See Recession, Job Openings Drop

Authors
  • 日本経済新聞 電子版(日経電子版)
  • The Kobeissi Letter
  • FinancialJuice
12

US consumer sentiment and investor behavior indicate growing pessimism about the stock market and the broader economy. In April, 49% of Americans expected lower stock prices over the next 12 months, the highest level in 14 years, with this bearish sentiment doubling in just three months. Hedge funds have taken the most short positions on US equities since the 2022 bear market, and US equity funds have experienced $9.3 billion in net outflows over the past four weeks, the largest in two years. Foreign investors have sold $63 billion of US stocks since March, with European investors accounting for the majority of the selling, signaling a potential pullback from US assets that could pressure the dollar. US technology funds posted $1.2 billion in net outflows in the week ending May 7, marking the biggest withdrawal in nearly three months despite a recent market recovery. Meanwhile, investors are moving towards safer assets, with ETFs tracking gold, short-term US government bonds, and low-volatility stocks attracting $18 billion in inflows in April, the most in two years. The US job market shows signs of weakening, with job openings falling by 288,000 in March to 7.2 million, near the lowest level in over four years, driven by declines in transportation and construction sectors. The ratio of job openings to unemployed persons dropped to 1.02, below pre-2020 highs. Temporary help services jobs have declined for 30 consecutive months, the longest streak since the Great Financial Crisis, falling by approximately 630,000 since their peak. Economic indicators suggest recessionary conditions: the Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Index plunged 39 points to -26.4, the second-lowest since the 2020 crisis, and new orders fell to their lowest since April 2020. Consumer recession expectations have surged, with 72% of Americans in April perceiving a recession likely within 12 months, the highest in two years, and 66% expecting higher unemployment, the highest since the Great Financial Crisis. CEO confidence in the US economy dropped to its lowest level in 13 years, raising expectations of increased layoffs and cost-cutting by companies. In commodities, hedge funds have reduced net-length positions in Brent crude oil futures and options by 12,383 contracts to 97,558 as of May 6, and in WTI crude oil futures and options by 10,094 contracts to 143,938. Long-only positions in Brent crude fell by 3,496 while short-only positions rose by 8,887; for WTI crude, both long-only and short-only positions increased. Hedge funds are also bearish on agricultural commodities such as Kansas wheat and soybean meal, reflecting factors including favorable weather and accelerated planting. The US stock market continues to dominate global equity markets, accounting for about 70% of the global equity market share, near an all-time high, while Europe's share is near a historic low of around 18%. Despite market uncertainty and bearish investor behavior, retail investors have been buying a record amount of stocks. These developments come amid concerns about the impact of tariffs on the cost of living and economic uncertainty affecting American households' financial stability.

Written with ChatGPT (GPT-4).

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