The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States reached a new cycle low in June 2025, with a maximum drawdown of 17.8%, the largest since the Financial Crisis. The LEI fell 4.0% year-over-year in June to its lowest level in 11 years and has triggered a recession signal for the third consecutive month. While the breadth of LEI components improved to 60% in June, this followed a period of weak performance over the past six months, with only 40% of components seeing gains, up from 15% in April. Despite a slight rebound since 2023, the LEI's year-over-year growth remains stalled. Additionally, concerns about the US job market are rising, as 58% of Americans expect higher unemployment in the next 12 months, a sentiment historically associated only with recessions. Market observers note a widening gap between the LEI and the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), with a potential recession signal if the CEI declines, while markets appear unprepared for an economic slowdown.