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Prediction markets for Aude
Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?
Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
13.08%chance
5529537
OptionVotes
24482
4980
Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?
Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60%chance
602925
OptionVotes
1337
880
Will Stephen Fry be the narrator for the "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" audiobook?
May 19, 4:42 AMSep 17, 4:39 AM
28.97%chance
251888
OptionVotes
1566
639
Freestyle Chess will have a higher online audience than Classical Chess by 2030.
Feb 14, 10:16 AMDec 22, 5:59 AM
24.41%chance
161639
OptionVotes
1760
568
Will the Audi works Formula 1 team win a Grand Prix in 2026, its first season?
Jun 11, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.1%chance
181358
OptionVotes
1877
533
Audible sells books narrated by AI voice replacements of celebrities or characters before 2029
Jun 11, 2:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
85.55%chance
341302
OptionVotes
1324
902
Will an album using synthetic audio be my favorite album of 2025?
Dec 19, 5:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32.49%chance
5579
OptionVotes
1441
694
Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027
Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM
40.61%chance
17410
OptionVotes
1009
991
By 2040, will there be audio translation tech that's a full substitute for knowing a foreign language?
Dec 29, 7:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
90.3%chance
13346
OptionVotes
1275
940
Will "Clarifying METR's Auditing Role" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 14, 5:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10.57%chance
2320
OptionVotes
1317
956
Will The Department Of Government Efficiency audit Fort Knox and it's Gold Reserves before the end of 2025
Feb 17, 12:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
24.11%chance
7272
OptionVotes
177
56
What will the Eastern section of Melbourne's Suburban Rail Loop Cost? ($AUD Billions)
Dec 5, 10:32 AMDec 31, 1:00 PM
30.66%chance
390
OptionProbability
324
273