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Prediction markets for Kinmen Island
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
Nov 17, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
55.88%chance
6610019
OptionVotes
1231
747
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2025?
Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.49%chance
466878
OptionVotes
1649
871
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40%chance
384435
OptionVotes
2225
1816
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
26.88%chance
344366
OptionVotes
1054
765
China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2027
Feb 16, 1:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
172306
OptionProbability
21
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
10
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.39%chance
261886
OptionVotes
1048
891
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.57%chance
26867
OptionVotes
1039
904
OptionVotes
359
86
OptionProbability
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
27
24
Will mainland China have more than one time zone? By mid 2037
Jan 10, 8:07 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
21.41%chance
9202
OptionVotes
265
96
OptionProbability
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
30
24
OptionVotes
131
67
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