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Prediction markets for Mali
OptionProbability
34
14
14
9
9
9
9
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Mar 12, 4:14 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
495882
OptionProbability
90
79
78
77
75
69
65
64
59
51
51
50
50
50
45
44
43
41
38
37
36
36
35
33
33
31
29
29
28
26
23
23
22
20
20
20
20
20
20
15
15
13
10
10
10
10
8
8
8
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Which of these countries will recognize the state of Israel by mid 2026
Nov 29, 8:20 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM
302511
OptionProbability
75
54
52
41
41
40
38
37
34
33
27
25
24
23
23
22
20
18
18
17
15
15
15
13
10
9
6
5
5
Which countries will legalize homosexual behavior by 2030( can Add countries)
Jun 25, 6:23 PMDec 3, 4:59 AM
292307
OptionProbability
73
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
45
45
35
35
27
21
9
GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?
Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
53.66%chance
321555
OptionVotes
1225
592
Which of these countries will recognize the state of Israel by 2040? [แน1500 Pool]
Oct 30, 7:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
231221
OptionProbability
99
86
86
81
75
73
70
69
67
66
63
61
61
60
58
57
55
55
50
50
50
49
48
48
47
44
39
35
34
34
32
29
20
Which non-European or non-South American team will be the first to win the FIFA world cup?
Feb 12, 7:19 AMFeb 19, 9:59 PM
251160
OptionProbability
20
13
10
9
9
8
6
6
5
5
4
1
1
1
1
1
Which of these countries will recognize the state of Israel first?
Nov 29, 8:24 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM
311154
OptionProbability
24
21
14
9
7
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Which country will backslide into authoritarianism the most in the 2020s?
Feb 17, 12:22 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM
211141
OptionProbability
39
18
11
9
9
6
3
3
2
Which country will lose territory to a newly founded country by 2050? [add responses]
Mar 16, 11:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
181021
OptionProbability
80
76
76
76
74
72
72
72
67
66
60
60
60
60
59
59
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
44
41
41
40
31
28
27
26
24
24
23
Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?
Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM
68.84%chance
10141
OptionVotes
1045
974
OptionVotes
130
77