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Top stories

Pakistan CTD Dismantles Alleged RAW Network in Karachi

Pakistan CTD Dismantles Alleged RAW Network in Karachi

Authors

3

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Matli

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

53.85%chance

277452830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6206

2880

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.82%chance

99161555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111105

17339

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

63.05%chance

216122009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10846

8080

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

18.68%chance

15870411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1902

1495

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.28%chance

6226753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12280

8032

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.01%chance

359384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15278

6546

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.83%chance

125543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10627

9444

Will Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?

Sep 9, 12:57 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

15.25%chance

15844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (both among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)

Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8247

OptionProbability

Charles Duke

Harrison Schmitt

James A. Lovell Jr.

Fred W. Haise Jr.

Buzz Aldrin

David Scott

Other

Frank Borman

Thomas K. Mattingly II

Thomas Stafford

29

19

15

12

9

5

4

3

2

2

Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040

Jun 24, 11:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.29%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)

Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

did you or anyone in your household have The Mat as a kid?

Oct 6, 10:16 PM

260

Latest stories

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Aug 23, 2025
Aug 23, 2025
Pakistan
Crime
Culture
Pakistan CTD Dismantles Alleged RAW Network in Karachi
Authors
3
7 months ago

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