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Top stories

Uttarakhand Airlifts 52 After Cloudburst Cuts Off Dharali-Harsil

Natural Disasters

Uttarakhand Airlifts 52 After Cloudburst Cuts Off Dharali-Harsil

Authors

3

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Matli

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

56%chance

176211553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6050

3063

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.39%chance

86134411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108928

17670

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.76%chance

147124531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14625

9119

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

20.85%chance

13356459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1711

1543

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

6015052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9919

9893

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.81%chance

114493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10081

9577

Will Mattel stock (MAT) be above 25 USD on October 1st 2025?

Feb 20, 8:58 AMOct 2, 6:59 AM

4%chance

6423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

Which musical artists will play at Shambhala 2026?

Jul 30, 7:24 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

1356

OptionProbability

Pineo & Loeb

Funk Hunters

Mat the Allen

Skiitour

ill.gates

Lazy Syrup Orchestra

Longwalkshortdock

Father Funk

A.Skillz

Excision

Moontricks

Clozee

Rezz

Broken Future

69

69

59

59

59

59

57

55

55

55

55

55

54

47

Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (both among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)

Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8247

OptionProbability

Charles Duke

Harrison Schmitt

James A. Lovell Jr.

Fred W. Haise Jr.

Buzz Aldrin

David Scott

Other

Frank Borman

Thomas K. Mattingly II

Thomas Stafford

29

19

15

12

9

5

4

3

2

2

Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)

Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040

Jun 24, 11:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.33%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

60

What Will John Make In MathCounts?

Jul 26, 3:26 AMJun 1, 3:20 AM

00

OptionProbability

Nothing

School

Chapter

State

National

Other

17

17

17

17

17

17

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Aug 9, 2025
Aug 9, 2025
India
Natural Disasters
Environment
Uttarakhand Airlifts 52 After Cloudburst Cuts Off Dharali-Harsil
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4 days ago

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