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Top stories

Pakistan CTD Dismantles Alleged RAW Network in Karachi

Pakistan CTD Dismantles Alleged RAW Network in Karachi

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Matli

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.02%chance

182305903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110696

29250

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

66.35%chance

21981828

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3059

786

Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?

Aug 20, 10:09 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

28%chance

3320202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6387

4741

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.62%chance

4114719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14127

7079

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.29%chance

149293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12637

6684

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

43.17%chance

223650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4443

3625

Will Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?

Sep 9, 12:57 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

15.25%chance

15844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (both among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)

Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8247

OptionProbability

Charles Duke

Harrison Schmitt

James A. Lovell Jr.

Fred W. Haise Jr.

Buzz Aldrin

David Scott

Other

Frank Borman

Thomas K. Mattingly II

Thomas Stafford

29

19

15

12

9

5

4

3

2

2

Will "MATS 9 Retrospective & Advice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 16, 6:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.91%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

987

Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040

Jun 24, 11:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.29%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)

Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

did you or anyone in your household have The Mat as a kid?

Oct 6, 10:16 PM

260

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Aug 23, 2025
Aug 23, 2025
Pakistan
Crime
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Pakistan CTD Dismantles Alleged RAW Network in Karachi
Authors
3
1 year ago

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