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Prediction markets for Matli
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90.41%chance
198384813
OptionVotes
155442
22908
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Aug 20, 10:09 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
38%chance
3322102
OptionVotes
7072
3331
Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?
Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.76%chance
4114764
OptionVotes
14172
7056
Real U.S. spending on math R&D at higher-education institutions decrease by at least 25% by EOY 2028
Oct 3, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.15%chance
510552
OptionVotes
20550
4866
Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?
Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
57.09%chance
179858
OptionVotes
13202
6235
Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?
Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM
42.64%chance
233700
OptionVotes
4493
3587
Will Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?
Sep 9, 12:57 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
15.25%chance
15844
OptionVotes
236
42
Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (*both* among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)
Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9248
OptionProbability
29
19
19
10
5
5
4
4
3
2
Will "MATS 9 Retrospective & Advice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
May 16, 6:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.91%chance
6225
OptionVotes
1084
987
Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040
Jun 24, 11:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
21.29%chance
4105
OptionVotes
192
52
Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)
Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20%chance
1100
OptionVotes
200
50