Matli News
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Prediction markets for Matli
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.56%chance
154223270
OptionVotes
58291
46413
Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]
Jul 19, 2:27 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM
16.49%chance
22091568
OptionVotes
22645
4161
AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?
Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM
48.47%chance
20778153
OptionVotes
2385
1284
Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?
Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.62%chance
4114719
OptionVotes
14127
7079
Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?
Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
42.02%chance
136543
OptionVotes
10444
9054
Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?
Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM
37.22%chance
152546
OptionVotes
5051
3217
Will Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?
Sep 9, 12:57 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
15.25%chance
15844
OptionVotes
236
42
Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (*both* among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)
Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8247
OptionProbability
29
19
15
12
9
5
4
3
2
2
Will "MATS 9 Retrospective & Advice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
May 16, 6:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.91%chance
6225
OptionVotes
1084
987
Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040
Jun 24, 11:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
21.29%chance
4105
OptionVotes
192
52
Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)
Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20%chance
1100
OptionVotes
200
50