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Prediction markets for Oğulbey Technology Base
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.85%chance
8145087
OptionVotes
33264
2509
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?
Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
96.04%chance
10423559
OptionVotes
10119
734
Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?
Feb 8, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
67.93%chance
7014663
OptionVotes
14553
6871
In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
27%chance
1459501
OptionVotes
6094
4376
OptionProbability
32
23
21
8
8
5
3
0
Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?
May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
17.66%chance
414675
OptionVotes
3003
1084
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.37%chance
174255
OptionVotes
12410
8058
10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
45.89%chance
253805
OptionVotes
1088
922
Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?
May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
38.95%chance
91300
OptionVotes
3864
3220
If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?
Mar 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
69.65%chance
13186
OptionVotes
1037
977
OptionProbability
17
17
17
17
17
17
OptionProbability
17
17
17
17
17
17