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Prediction markets for Oğulbey Technology Base
5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?"
Mar 27, 5:41 AMMar 28, 4:59 AM
86.54%chance
38852582
OptionVotes
2160
1520
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
11.08%chance
8138437
OptionVotes
27819
3071
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?
Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
96.04%chance
10423559
OptionVotes
10119
734
In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
31.95%chance
1428966
OptionVotes
3125
2071
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.39%chance
1137257
OptionVotes
1939
907
OptionProbability
37
25
13
9
6
6
3
0
Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?
May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
17.66%chance
414675
OptionVotes
3003
1084
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.12%chance
113641
OptionVotes
11967
8356
10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.44%chance
213540
OptionVotes
1033
971
Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?
May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
38.95%chance
91300
OptionVotes
3864
3220
Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?
Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
52.67%chance
28878
OptionVotes
1235
577
If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?
Mar 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
69.65%chance
13186
OptionVotes
1037
977