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Prediction markets for Pentagon
Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?
Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM
211394705
OptionProbability
98
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Nidal Hasans execution be livestreamed in 2026?
Oct 9, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.15%chance
4913123
OptionVotes
5307
30
If Anthropic caves to the Pentagon in Q1 2026, will it remain a leading AI lab in 2027?
Feb 27, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1510922
OptionProbability
91
8
1
1
OptionProbability
77
8
6
6
2
1
Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?
Jun 6, 9:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
61.83%chance
112048
OptionVotes
1138
717
GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?
Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
53.66%chance
321555
OptionVotes
1225
592
P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
Dec 12, 11:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM
20.13%chance
21965
OptionVotes
1006
706
Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?
Oct 29, 7:33 AMJan 1, 6:14 PM
10550
OptionProbability
61
61
56
52
16
8
Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?
Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM
45.8%chance
5122
OptionVotes
1093
924
Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027
Feb 16, 1:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
18.48%chance
2110
OptionVotes
210
48
Will "Does Pentagon Pizza Theory Work?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jan 24, 7:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.41%chance
251
OptionVotes
1044
993
OptionVotes
112
108
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