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Prediction markets for Pentagon
When will the U.S. government confirm that the Roswell incident was an actual UFO crash?
Sep 18, 8:00 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
2922824
OptionProbability
36
17
3
1
0
OptionVotes
4542
227
Will China's navy still be the largest in the world in 2025?
Mar 6, 9:18 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
95.21%chance
154223
OptionVotes
2509
847
GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?
Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
53.66%chance
321555
OptionVotes
1225
592
P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
Dec 12, 11:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM
20.13%chance
21965
OptionVotes
1006
706
Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?
Oct 29, 7:33 AMJan 1, 6:14 PM
10550
OptionProbability
61
61
56
52
16
8
Secret Immaculate Constellation Pentagon program revelation causes detention time before 2026?
Apr 30, 3:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.96%chance
7240
OptionVotes
340
29
OptionVotes
1015
985
Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?
Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM
20.46%chance
6130
OptionVotes
197
51
Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?
Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM
45.8%chance
5122
OptionVotes
1093
924
Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027
Feb 16, 1:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
18.48%chance
2110
OptionVotes
210
48
OptionVotes
112
108
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