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Prediction markets for Phase One
3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.
Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
80.14%chance
6116884
OptionVotes
2008
498
Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?
Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
5.26%chance
2411233
OptionVotes
11928
1118
Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?
Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.67%chance
569741
OptionVotes
1959
510
Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?
Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
73.59%chance
212870
OptionVotes
1221
865
Will Harvard be found liable for damages to Gino, conditional on a trial verdict being reached by 2026?
Aug 22, 11:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
26.38%chance
162263
OptionVotes
1305
1290
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
74.89%chance
311936
OptionVotes
1629
626
End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
67.84%chance
221596
OptionVotes
1576
292
OptionVotes
1040
971
Does Janssen's CD59 gene therapy for age-related macular degeneration work?
Jun 4, 2:58 AMJun 11, 6:59 AM
34.12%chance
3401
OptionVotes
1393
723
Montana's experimental treatment centers licensed by EOY 2025
May 19, 8:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
46.73%chance
5190
OptionVotes
1068
937
Will Arketamine promote a greater anti-depressant effect than Esketamine?
Apr 17, 11:24 PMApr 24, 11:24 PM
56.27%chance
666
OptionVotes
946
945
OptionVotes
93
85
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