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Prediction markets for Phase One
Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry
Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM
97.16%chance
2711352
OptionVotes
6226
197
Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?
Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
5.26%chance
2411233
OptionVotes
11928
1118
OptionVotes
3573
281
Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?
Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
73.59%chance
212870
OptionVotes
1221
865
End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
36.84%chance
242303
OptionVotes
1098
735
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
74.89%chance
311936
OptionVotes
1629
626
OptionVotes
740
61
OptionVotes
1040
971
Does Janssen's CD59 gene therapy for age-related macular degeneration work?
Jun 4, 2:58 AMJun 11, 6:59 AM
34.12%chance
3401
OptionVotes
1393
723
Will there be an FDA approved medication to lower lp(a) by the end of 2027?
Jan 4, 1:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
52.25%chance
5213
OptionVotes
1046
956
OptionProbability
29
28
10
6
6
6
6
6
3
Will Arketamine promote a greater anti-depressant effect than Esketamine?
Apr 17, 11:24 PMApr 24, 11:24 PM
56.27%chance
666
OptionVotes
946
945
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