OptionProbability
Bezalel Smotrich quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalizes relations
Benny Gants quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
IDF takes control over Rafah
Yoav Gallant quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
Baseline (will be resolved to YES or NO only)
50
32
17
16
15
10
Stationing a permanent Israeli military presence in Gaza
Taking territory from Gaza to create a buffer zone on the border
Taking control of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt
Conducting regular raids in Gaza (similar to the West Bank)
Expelling lower-level members of Hamas from Gaza
83
81
74
72
45
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