Simón Bolívar Room News

YES

YES

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 31, 2026

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump remains President of USA

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

123

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A country declares war on Israel

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Iran undergoes a regime change

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

A country declares war on United States

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Any country leaves NATO

Successful military coup in Venezuela

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

China invades Taiwan

United States formally declares war on Iran

Sudanese Civil War ends

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

China formally declares war on another country

Egypt formally declares war on another country

Iran loses territory

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Israel loses territory

Iranian troops enter Israel

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

USA leaves NATO

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States formally declares war on another country

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Humans will extinct

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Half yeast

Bake it with your best friend.

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Bake for 5 more minutes

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Increase water by 50 g

it needs more salt

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Do a second rise

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

Add garlic

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

put ketchup and cheese on it

Use Iodized salt

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

Add slurs to it

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Make banana bread

Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.

Make the bread taste good

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

Watch the video

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Bake for 15 more minutes

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

Taste the bread

throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Use a convection oven/setting

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Brush on an egg wash

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Make the bread great again

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Replace salt with sugar

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Strawberry jelly filling

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Improve the bread

Quadruple salt

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Add caffeine to the bread

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Implementing every element listed below.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use lemonade instead of water.

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Autolyse 20 minutes

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Add a pinch of sugar

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake vodka into it

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Add banana

Add poppy seeds

Magic: The Gathering

Cult of the Lamb

Death's Door

Shift Happens

Baba is You

Understand

The Witness

Hollow Knight

It Takes Two

Unravel Two

Portal 2

Braid

Portal

Superliminal

The Talos Principle

The Talos Principle 2

Antichamber

Perspective

Portal Reloaded

Portal Stories: Mel

Thinking with Time Machine

Cell Machine

Bokura

Hades

Hades 2

Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes

Superhot

Slay the Princess

Mind over Magnet

Escape Academy

Pico Park 2

Viewfinder

Silksong

Baba Is You XTREME

Stardew Valley

blue prince

The Room

Pico Park

Wargroove

Patrick's Parabox

Q.U.B.E. 2

Q.U.B.E.

The Stanley Parable

Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A

Splendor (tabletop game)

We Were Here Too

Advance Wars

Mini Motorways

Human: Fall Flat

Outer Wilds

Don't Starve

Papers Please

Doki Doki Literature Club!

We Were Here

Castle Crashers

Spiritfarer

scarlet hollow

Terraria

Chants of Sennaar

Patch Quest

Minecraft

999

Detroit: Become Human

Wild Woods

Manifold Garden

We Were Here Forever

Goragoa

Subnauticta

We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip

Tokimeki Memorial

Baldur's Gate 3

Beyond: Two Souls

Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc

What Remains of Edith Finch

Clandestine

Nobody Saves the World

Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime

Glider (1988)

Split Fiction

Rayman Legends

LittleBigPlanet 3

Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light

Bean and nothingness

Space Station 13

Nomifactory

Monifactory

Rebirth of the Night

Induction

Akane

Zero Time Dilemma

Morrowind

going under: internships are heck

Animal Well

English Country Tune

English Country Tune

Satisfactory

Expedition 33

Quantum Conundrum

Stoneshard

Final Fantasy Tactics (original)

Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced

Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced 2

Octopath Travel

Project Triangle Strategy

Sokosoko

Physics-Breaking Boxes

Inbox Unbox

Linelith

Boxing Up Bamboo

Frog Wizard Gem Quest

The Vacuum Cleaner in the Room

Clockwork Cat

salt and sactuary

From Muddled to Clean

Path to Nowhere

Arknights

Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten

Lorelei and the Laser Eyes

A Monster's Expedition

Lingo

Solas 128

Gentoo Rescue

Ugly

Toki Tori 2+

Veggie Quest: The Puzzle Game

Isles of Sea and Sky

Chroma Zero

Paquerette

Riven

Baba Files Taxes

Baba Is Quiz

A Solitaire Mystery

IT'S A BLOCK-PUSHING GAME

Leaf's Odyssey

Submachine

LOK Digital

Leap Year

Recursed

Fever Meme

Passant: A Chess Roguelike

tetr.io (quickplay duos)

Taiji

Crawl

Corekeeper

Emberknights

Sworn

Jumpspace

Gloomhaven

Mountain Peak

A Way Out

The Past Within

How 2 Escape

All You Need is Help

Melbits World

Parallel Experiment

Superbugs: Awaken

Tick Tock: A Tale for Two

Tristoy

Unboxing the Cryptic Killer

Tetris Effect

Pushmo

World of Goo

The Swapper

Papers, Please

The Séance of Blake Manor

Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward

Moonlighter

Myst

We Were Here Together

Hyperrogue

Void Stranger

PEAK

Sackboy: A Big Adventure

Arc Raiders

Unstable Unicorns 🦄

Mario Party

Magicka

Exploding kittens

Yume Nikki

The House of DaVinci

Tunic

Moving Out

Moving Out

Timberborn

Trine 2

A Couple Of Cubes

Root (tabletop or digital version)

Children of Morta

Rainworld

Deadly Rooms of Death

Fez

CrossCode

Cocoon

Islands of Insight

Monopoly

USSR Simulator (https://flowlab.io/game/play/1151923) (trash but still)

SteamWorld Dig

Snakebird

Chess

Slay the Spire

Among Us

Stephen's Sausage Roll

Amazing Chicken Adventures

Wingspan

Can of Wormholes

Disco Elysium

Overcooked

Return of the Obra Dinn

Inscryption

Slice and Dice

Teardown

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

It is not possible to multitask

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

Other

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

MSF / Doctors without Borders

Donald Trump

Yulia Navalnaya

International Court of Justice

Narges Mohammadi

Minnesota (or the People of Minnesota)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Greta Thunberg

duplicate - international Court of Justice

UNESCO

Philippe Lazzarini

Joe Biden

UNRWA

Alexei Navalny

Kyaw Moe Tun

José Andrés

World Uyghur Congress

Maria Corina Machado

Eliezer Yudkowsky

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

Timnit Gebru

Elon Musk

NATO

Netanyahu

JD Vance

AOC

Antonio Guterres

Julian Assange

David Attenborough

Pope Francis

Ursula von der Leyen

Keir Starmer

European Union

Ilham Tohti

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

Jacinda Ardern

Raoni Metuktire

José Andrés

Loujain al-Hathloul

Ilwad Elman

Wa Lone

Narendra Modi

Yvonne Ridley

Hajer Sharief

Alexis Tsipras

Isaias Afwerki

Nathan Law

Agnes Chow

Filippo Grandi

Yuan Longping

Mahbouba Seraj

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

Juan Carlos Jintiach

Joshua Wong

Ernest Moniz

DOGE

Kamala Harris

Noam Chomsky

International Fact-Checking Network

Manifold Markets

Justin Trudeau

Vladimir Putin

Aleksandr Lukashenko

Sam Altman

Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

Kim Jong Un

Abdullah Öcalan

Daniel Sheehan

Robert Kennedy Jr

@Krantz

Gustavo Petro

The Iranian protesters

Peacekeepers

Jimmy Lai

Francesca Albanese

Taylor Swift engaged

Sweden joins NATO

Death Stranding 2 out

Hollow Knight Silksong released

Sailing skill releases for runescape

Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way

Mr Beast reaches 300M subs on Youtube

Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

Super Bowl LIX kickoff

Chat gpt 6 releases

Taylor Swift married

King Charles no longer king of UK

Windows 12 released

Kingdom Hearts 4 out

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

5th bitcoin halving

Haunted Chocolatier releases

twitter releases a p2p payment system to free or all premium users

manifold reaches 4000 engaged users

Star Citizen releases

someone reaches 10B profit on manifold

a twitter account reaches 300M followers for the first time

Uber or Lyft cease operating (shut down / acquired and merged / etc)

6th bitcoin halving

Bryan Johnson will still be alive when it happens

ukraine joins nato

assange extradited to usa

LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor is reproduced in a peer reviewed journal

AI + Internet

AI + Robotics

AI + Biotech

AI + weapons

AI + Computers

AI + road vehicles

AI + Medicine

AI + Brain Computer Interface (BCI)

XR + AI

Bitcoin + AI

Room temp superconductors + fusion

Robotics + space

AI + Hypnodrones

GPS + Semiconductors

Bitcoin + Robotics

Glass of Thrones letdown (polished)

Watching Harry Potter 1 on airplane and rewinding and quoting over and over the meme wizard chess section

Quick dialog sketch: "Oh my gosh a black cat, we're going to have so much bad luck now" "Wait you don't really believe in that kind of stuff do you?" "See look we're already fighting :("

Friend who took a long time in the bathroom

Coaching my girlfriend to queue up match highlights from another room to avoid spoilers

Spies when they accidentally bite the poison pill hidden in their tooth

Sketchy human ATM

Depression after a team I never heard of loses

Before Sunrise POV in record shop

Whatever the next clip of me doing standup is

Nervously removing a bunch of 'remove before flight' aviation tags from the counter of a helicopter tour company

Glass of Thrones letdown

Remembering that PBR was a thing

Gross side of owls delivering mail in the great hall

A compilation of OpenAI employees interrupting ChatGPT (and potentially gradually fading to a scene from terminator)

Demo of the new ChatGPT but it's way too flirty

Candy addiction hotline

Having a bone to pick with soccer players doing a “bow and arrow” celebration but letting go of the bow

Friend who thinks they're safety officer

Brainstorming how to become viral

Slytherin doing the math

Cheap Airbnb tour

American Express review

Future Me

How it feels logging in with authenticator (shot in the style of dramatically diffusing a bomb)

NFC Translation

Satire of sales ads

Saying "Damn" in front of a dam.

Every time I try to order a beer

Dreamy nonsensical philosophy shot

Ketamine (recreationally)

Takes Estrogen

celebrating christmas?

Visits the Bay in the first half of February

Ketamine (medically)

Invites @transkatgirl to live with her in her room

Treasure Room

Hoglin Stables

Bridge

Housing Units