OptionVotes
YES
NO
36902
9335
OptionProbability
Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases
Gene Editing Therapies
Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile
Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat
Regenerative Medicine
Brain-Computer Interfaces
Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes
Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles
Solar panels with 40% efficiency
Bioprinting
Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat
Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases
Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships
Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew
Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)
viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)
Human-level AGI
Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars
Space-Based Manufacturing
A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years
Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³
Seafloor Mining Robots
Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer
Quantum Computing Applications
Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy
Graphene semiconductor electronics
Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery
Lunar Bases
Moon base
Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure
Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use
Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)
Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure
Britain finishes HS2
More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)
Photonic computing
Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities
Commercial asteroid mining
Datacenters in space
Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)
Hypersonic commercial passenger travel
Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.
Joywire
Nuclear powered cargo ships
Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors
Fast travel across the globe
Commercial fusion power
AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts
Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects
Mars Base
City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks
Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere
Nuclear Thermal Rockets
Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)
Cryonics with Successful Revival
Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue
Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)
Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol
Commercial satellite to ground power transmission
Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure
Changing the height of an adult at will
Von Neumann Probe
Orbital Habitats
Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories
Fusion Drives
Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation
Human Mind Uploading
Space-to-Earth power stations
Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light
Direct Cognitive Collaboration
Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities
Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells
A skyhook space structure in LEO
Human sex change at chromosome level
Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months
Changing a person's race at will
Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids
Vacuum Airships
Time travel to the future
Commercial cold fusion
Space Elevator
Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms
Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)
Antimatter bombs
Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)
1% Dyson sphere coverage
Faster then Light Propulsion
Time travel to the past
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21
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2
OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)
India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore
A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026
United States troops enter Iran
Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)
Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico
Hostile military action by United States against Cuba
USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire
Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire
Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba
At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
A country declares war on Israel
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
123
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Any country leaves NATO
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela
Any NATO country formally declares war on another country
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
USA leaves NATO
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths
Egypt formally declares war on another country
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Successful military coup in Venezuela
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Iran undergoes a regime change
Iran loses territory
Sudanese Civil War ends
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
China formally declares war on another country
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil
A country declares war on United States
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Israel loses territory
Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation
Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state
Iranian troops enter Israel
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.
Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action
China invades Taiwan
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
United States formally declares war on another country
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
United States formally declares war on Iran
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Israel annexes any portion of Iran
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Any US territory comes under Canadian administration
Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation
Humans will extinct
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas
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0
0
OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Increase water by 50 g
it needs more salt
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Use Iodized salt
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Add garlic
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Use the same dough bake it as focaccia. Flat with EVOO added during shaped rise and baste with EVOO instead of spraying water during baking.
put ketchup and cheese on it
add 'gunpowder' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idli_podi)
Add slurs to it
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Make the bread taste good
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.
Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Mix only flour and water. Wait 30–60 minutes. Then mix in yeast and salt.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example
Make banana bread
Strawberry jelly filling
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Use lemonade instead of water.
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Taste the bread
put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off
Buy chemical bread improvers
Complete 5 items from your to-do list while the bread is rising
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of gravy that includes chicken stock
Add cheese inside it and also sausage
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Eat it slowly and focus on the taste
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag
Make the bread great again
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Bake for 15 more minutes
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Follow a recipe online
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add caffeine to the bread
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Brush on an egg wash
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Magic: The Gathering
Cult of the Lamb
Death's Door
Shift Happens
Baba is You
Understand
The Witness
Hollow Knight
It Takes Two
Unravel Two
Portal 2
Braid
Portal
Superliminal
The Talos Principle
The Talos Principle 2
Antichamber
Perspective
Portal Reloaded
Portal Stories: Mel
Thinking with Time Machine
Cell Machine
Bokura
Hades
Hades 2
Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes
Superhot
Slay the Princess
Mind over Magnet
Escape Academy
blue prince
Pico Park 2
Viewfinder
Silksong
Baba Is You XTREME
The Room
Pico Park
Wargroove
Patrick's Parabox
Q.U.B.E. 2
Q.U.B.E.
The Stanley Parable
Noita
Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A
Stardew Valley
Outer Wilds
Splendor (tabletop game)
We Were Here Too
Mini Motorways
Don't Starve
Papers Please
Doki Doki Literature Club!
We Were Here
Castle Crashers
scarlet hollow
Terraria
Chants of Sennaar
Patch Quest
Minecraft
Wild Woods
Manifold Garden
We Were Here Forever
Goragoa
Subnauticta
We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip
Baldur's Gate 3
Clandestine
Nobody Saves the World
Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime
Split Fiction
Rayman Legends
LittleBigPlanet 3
Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light
Bean and nothingness
Space Station 13
Nomifactory
Monifactory
Rebirth of the Night
Induction
Akane
Morrowind
going under: internships are heck
Animal Well
English Country Tune
English Country Tune
Satisfactory
Expedition 33
Quantum Conundrum
Stoneshard
Final Fantasy Tactics (original)
Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced
Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced 2
Octopath Travel
Project Triangle Strategy
Sokosoko
Physics-Breaking Boxes
Inbox Unbox
Linelith
Boxing Up Bamboo
Frog Wizard Gem Quest
The Vacuum Cleaner in the Room
Clockwork Cat
salt and sactuary
From Muddled to Clean
Path to Nowhere
Arknights
Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten
Lorelei and the Laser Eyes
A Monster's Expedition
Lingo
Solas 128
Gentoo Rescue
Ugly
Toki Tori 2+
Veggie Quest: The Puzzle Game
Isles of Sea and Sky
Chroma Zero
Paquerette
Riven
Baba Files Taxes
Baba Is Quiz
A Solitaire Mystery
IT'S A BLOCK-PUSHING GAME
Leaf's Odyssey
Submachine
LOK Digital
Leap Year
Recursed
Fever Meme
Passant: A Chess Roguelike
tetr.io (quickplay duos)
Taiji
Crawl
Corekeeper
Emberknights
Sworn
Jumpspace
Gloomhaven
Mountain Peak
A Way Out
The Past Within
How 2 Escape
All You Need is Help
Melbits World
Parallel Experiment
Superbugs: Awaken
Tick Tock: A Tale for Two
Tristoy
Unboxing the Cryptic Killer
Tetris Effect
Pushmo
World of Goo
The Swapper
Papers, Please
The Séance of Blake Manor
Fugitive (board/card game)
Codenames Duet (card game)
Pandemic (boardgame)
Fugitive (board/card game)
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward
Moonlighter
Myst
We Were Here Together
Hyperrogue
Void Stranger
PEAK
Exploding kittens
Sackboy: A Big Adventure
Arc Raiders
Unstable Unicorns 🦄
Mario Party
Magicka
Yume Nikki
The House of DaVinci
Tunic
Moving Out
Moving Out
Timberborn
Trine 2
A Couple Of Cubes
Root (tabletop or digital version)
Children of Morta
Rainworld
Deadly Rooms of Death
Fez
CrossCode
Cocoon
Islands of Insight
Monopoly
USSR Simulator (https://flowlab.io/game/play/1151923) (trash but still)
SteamWorld Dig
Snakebird
Chess
Slay the Spire
Among Us
Beyond: Two Souls
Stephen's Sausage Roll
Amazing Chicken Adventures
Spiritfarer
Wingspan
Can of Wormholes
Disco Elysium
Overcooked
Return of the Obra Dinn
Inscryption
Slice and Dice
Glider (1988)
Teardown
Human: Fall Flat
Tokimeki Memorial
999
Detroit: Become Human
Zero Time Dilemma
Astroneer
What Remains of Edith Finch
Advance Wars
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
80
80
80
77
76
75
74
73
73
72
70
66
66
65
64
64
63
62
62
61
60
59
56
56
55
55
54
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
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50
50
50
50
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50
50
50
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50
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50
50
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50
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50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
46
45
44
43
42
42
41
41
41
40
40
40
38
35
34
34
34
31
30
28
28
27
25
25
25
25
25
24
22
22
15
10
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
18
17
11
7
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Taylor Swift engaged
Sweden joins NATO
Death Stranding 2 out
Hollow Knight Silksong released
Sailing skill releases for runescape
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
Mr Beast reaches 300M subs on Youtube
Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime
Super Bowl LIX kickoff
Chat gpt 6 releases
Taylor Swift married
King Charles no longer king of UK
Windows 12 released
Kingdom Hearts 4 out
reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread
5th bitcoin halving
Haunted Chocolatier releases
twitter releases a p2p payment system to free or all premium users
manifold reaches 4000 engaged users
Star Citizen releases
someone reaches 10B profit on manifold
a twitter account reaches 300M followers for the first time
Uber or Lyft cease operating (shut down / acquired and merged / etc)
6th bitcoin halving
Bryan Johnson will still be alive when it happens
ukraine joins nato
assange extradited to usa
LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor is reproduced in a peer reviewed journal
a Human has died on moon
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
95
95
94
93
92
91
90
90
85
80
80
76
73
72
60
54
31
25
19
OptionProbability
Death Stranding 2 releases
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold
Bitcoin reaches $100K
nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple
Jimmy Carter dies
Official sub 2:00 marathon
Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard
Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election
Manifest 2025 ends
GTA 6 is released
windows 12 released by microsoft
Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine
king charles no longer king of uk
Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer
Joe Biden dies
Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public
chat gpt 6 released
Human steps foot on the moon again
Vladimir Putin dies
Lex Fridman interviews Putin
Moldova joins NATO
Kingdom Hearts 4 released
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time
Credible reports of AGI
Woman becomes President of the United States
Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)
One Piece manga final chapter and series ends
Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M
George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )
Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means
China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan
Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess
The United States leaves NATO
Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)
assange extradited to usa
A market about room temperature semiconductors with at least 200 traders resolves in favor of the 'believers' (and stays resolved for a week)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
95
90
87
81
81
74
72
66
65
65
64
62
59
52
51
51
50
45
41
36
31
29
28
27
26
7
6
OptionProbability
AI + Internet
AI + Robotics
AI + Biotech
AI + weapons
AI + Computers
AI + road vehicles
AI + Medicine
AI + Brain Computer Interface (BCI)
XR + AI
Bitcoin + AI
Room temp superconductors + fusion
Robotics + space
AI + Hypnodrones
GPS + Semiconductors
Bitcoin + Robotics
Bitcoin + XR
95
77
69
30
26
20
19
14
14
13
10
10
7
6
4
1
OptionProbability
Glass of Thrones letdown (polished)
Watching Harry Potter 1 on airplane and rewinding and quoting over and over the meme wizard chess section
Quick dialog sketch: "Oh my gosh a black cat, we're going to have so much bad luck now" "Wait you don't really believe in that kind of stuff do you?" "See look we're already fighting :("
Friend who took a long time in the bathroom
Coaching my girlfriend to queue up match highlights from another room to avoid spoilers
Spies when they accidentally bite the poison pill hidden in their tooth
Sketchy human ATM
Depression after a team I never heard of loses
Before Sunrise POV in record shop
Whatever the next clip of me doing standup is
Nervously removing a bunch of 'remove before flight' aviation tags from the counter of a helicopter tour company
Glass of Thrones letdown
Remembering that PBR was a thing
Gross side of owls delivering mail in the great hall
A compilation of OpenAI employees interrupting ChatGPT (and potentially gradually fading to a scene from terminator)
Demo of the new ChatGPT but it's way too flirty
Candy addiction hotline
Having a bone to pick with soccer players doing a “bow and arrow” celebration but letting go of the bow
Friend who thinks they're safety officer
Brainstorming how to become viral
Slytherin doing the math
Cheap Airbnb tour
American Express review
Future Me
How it feels logging in with authenticator (shot in the style of dramatically diffusing a bomb)
NFC Translation
Satire of sales ads
Saying "Damn" in front of a dam.
Every time I try to order a beer
Dreamy nonsensical philosophy shot
Thinking I'm admiring the view from the Tokyo Skytower only to reveal that I don't realize I'm actually at the base of it.
100
100
100
76
75
71
69
68
66
66
62
59
59
59
58
58
56
55
54
53
53
51
50
50
50
48
46
45
41
37
0
OptionProbability
Ketamine (recreationally)
Takes Estrogen
celebrating christmas?
Visits the Bay in the first half of February
Ketamine (medically)
Invites @transkatgirl to live with her in her room
Takes out a life insurance plan.
73
70
66
62
61
51
34
OptionProbability
Treasure Room
Hoglin Stables
Bridge
Housing Units
None
34
27
18
18
3

