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Prediction markets for South African
Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?
Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.05%chance
358109164
OptionVotes
1876
1082
Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?
Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
91.28%chance
11515042
OptionVotes
6343
443
Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.87%chance
234991
OptionVotes
5409
2578
Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.96%chance
123209
OptionVotes
6132
3376
OptionProbability
56
17
14
5
5
3
Will the United States will have an Asian-American First Lady before they have an Asian-American president?
Sep 28, 8:42 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM
40%chance
16783
OptionVotes
1405
531
OptionVotes
170
39
Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?
Feb 16, 5:48 PMOct 31, 5:48 PM
69.02%chance
3538
OptionVotes
1126
938
OptionProbability
54
48
41
41
34
27
24
South Africa's vanadium production exceeds 10,000 tonnes in 2027?
Nov 26, 5:41 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM
55.22%chance
4151
OptionVotes
1110
901
What will the final AD cash-deposit rate (Russia-wide entity) be for unwrought palladium?
Feb 16, 5:48 PMOct 31, 5:48 PM
55.95%chance
1127
OptionVotes
1127
887
when will there be peace in Sudan and South Sudan? (includes both internal and external conflicts)
Apr 20, 12:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
26
OptionProbability
27
25
25
22