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Israeli Forces Raid West Bank Towns and Intercept Gaza-Bound Vessel Handala Carrying 21 Activists With Humanitarian Aid

17 days ago

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

94.31%chance

9025606

OptionVotes

YES

3919

917

Is Whistleblower David Charles Grusch Telling The Truth About Non-Human Craft Recoveries?

Jun 6, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.25%chance

172539

OptionVotes

YES

984

892

Will high-school or college students in 2040 be able to tell time on an analog clock?

Nov 28, 9:30 PMMay 13, 10:59 PM

88.52%chance

111960

OptionVotes

YES

1140

957

Will it be effectively impossible to tell a human and a high quality AI apart on social media before 2026?

Nov 12, 6:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85.55%chance

301078

OptionVotes

YES

1012

974

AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?

Oct 13, 4:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.3%chance

14342

OptionVotes

YES

1201

910

Will a mainstream LLM tell people to source and take semaglutide if they ask the LLM "how can I live longer" by EOY 2025

Feb 1, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.3%chance

598

OptionVotes

YES

182

Will "Tell me about yourself: LLMs are aware of the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 23, 11:16 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

56.48%chance

364

OptionVotes

YES

134

Will someone tell Jose Luis Ricon "I WANT TO HAVE BABIES WITH YOU, EVEN IF IT HAPPENS SPONTANEOUSLY/SUDDENLY" by 2030?

Jan 29, 4:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

Will "Show, not tell: GPT-4o is more opinionated in..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 8, 2:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will someone [in 2025] tell Jose Luis Ricon that he is genuinely their FAVORITE person in the world?

Apr 26, 12:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.62%chance

OptionVotes

YES

107

Will someone tell Jose Luis Ricon "you're too good for longevity" by EOY2025?

Dec 14, 9:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Can you convince ChatGPT to tell you the secret?

Dec 25, 12:34 AM

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Israeli Forces Raid West Bank Towns and Intercept Gaza-Bound Vessel Handala Carrying 21 Activists With Humanitarian Aid
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By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Is Whistleblower David Charles Grusch Telling The Truth About Non-Human Craft Recoveries?

Will high-school or college students in 2040 be able to tell time on an analog clock?

Will it be effectively impossible to tell a human and a high quality AI apart on social media before 2026?

AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?

Will a mainstream LLM tell people to source and take semaglutide if they ask the LLM "how can I live longer" by EOY 2025

Will "Tell me about yourself: LLMs are aware of the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will someone tell Jose Luis Ricon "I WANT TO HAVE BABIES WITH YOU, EVEN IF IT HAPPENS SPONTANEOUSLY/SUDDENLY" by 2030?

Will "Show, not tell: GPT-4o is more opinionated in..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will someone [in 2025] tell Jose Luis Ricon that he is genuinely their FAVORITE person in the world?

Will someone tell Jose Luis Ricon "you're too good for longevity" by EOY2025?

Can you convince ChatGPT to tell you the secret?

Latest stories

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