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Prediction markets for Times Square
(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
47.82%chance
7020039
OptionVotes
7145
4676
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
74
72
67
67
64
64
56
56
54
54
51
50
50
46
44
44
44
43
43
43
42
40
40
40
39
25
23
21
19
19
18
14
10
10
5
1
[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM
5.99%chance
810269
OptionVotes
3963
252
Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?
Jul 2, 5:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
84.17%chance
287238
OptionVotes
2179
568
OptionVotes
1957
1369
An attempt to fix the "Will this close above 50%" market. (READ DESCRIPTION)
Jul 19, 8:37 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM
40%chance
74824
OptionVotes
1225
816
OptionVotes
1380
928
Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?
Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
70.34%chance
16503
OptionVotes
1315
827
In Oldschool Runescape, will the world map keep the black box in the Kharidian Desert through the end of 2025?
Mar 6, 4:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.18%chance
7471
OptionVotes
174
124
OptionProbability
69
56
50
50
When will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?
Jul 30, 12:14 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
4167
OptionProbability
45
17
11
11
6
5
5
OptionVotes
121
83
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