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Prediction markets for Times Square
(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
41.17%chance
7321508
OptionVotes
7995
3995
[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM
7.14%chance
1117513
OptionVotes
3607
277
Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?
Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.35%chance
4611855
OptionVotes
4880
1150
OptionVotes
3447
526
OptionVotes
1380
928
OptionProbability
29
22
14
11
10
6
4
3
2
Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?
Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
76.93%chance
18803
OptionVotes
1637
732
Will Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war?
Jun 4, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.06%chance
3650
OptionVotes
1150
870
When will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?
Jul 30, 12:14 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
4167
OptionProbability
45
17
11
11
6
5
5
How many people will attend the Unite the Kingdom march on 16 May in London?
May 13, 9:22 PMMay 13, 10:59 PM
277
OptionProbability
37
33
6
6
5
5
5
5
Conditions for Second Coming of Christ better in 2030 than 2024?
Mar 24, 5:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
58.01%chance
673
OptionVotes
118
85
OptionProbability
36
18
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
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