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Prediction markets for Var
Will a COVID-19 variant cause a new scare and intermittent lockdowns in multiple countries by end 2025?
Jul 10, 3:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
5.12%chance
548919
OptionVotes
3415
700
OptionVotes
1191
840
Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?
Dec 18, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
46.2%chance
321275
OptionVotes
1247
507
Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book be a NYT bestseller in 2025? under various conditions
May 15, 7:16 PMDec 31, 8:15 PM
9899
OptionProbability
69
69
Will the Variability Hypothesis be confirmed within humans before 2035?
Jan 25, 6:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
27.02%chance
6720
OptionVotes
1644
608
OptionVotes
1048
961
What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?
Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
47.96%chance
9573
OptionVotes
372
367
Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027
Oct 17, 10:38 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
19.75%chance
16493
OptionVotes
1131
940
Will the Premier League stop the use of VAR before 2030?
May 15, 4:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
19.06%chance
8183
OptionVotes
206
49
Will "X explains Z% of the variance in Y" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 27, 11:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.21%chance
266
OptionVotes
1045
764
claude mcp for genome variant calling (or interacting with one's vcf/fastq files) by EOY2026?
Mar 2, 5:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.75%chance
110
OptionVotes
110
91
Pickleball tournament uses variable paddle rules for mixed doubles
Oct 1, 6:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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