2025 US Open News

Israel and Iran go to war again

Iran strikes Israel with missiles

Iran strikes US bases

Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American

The US launches airstrikes on three different days

Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power

The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed

The US launches airstrikes

Oil futures exceed 80.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

The US launches airstrikes on March 7 (UTC)

The Strait of Hormuz is mined

Any state bordering the Persian Gulf launches an attack on Iran

Oil futures exceed 100.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

Significant protests are reported in February and March

The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)

US ground troops enter Iran

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is killed

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

Anthropic releases Claude 5

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

Grok 5 will be released

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

Google will outperform the S&P

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

My median ASI timelines will shorten

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

OpenAI releases GPT-6

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

Anthropic IPO

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

xAI IPO

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

An LLM will beat me at chess

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

SSI will release a product

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

OpenAI IPO

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

Anthropic releases Claude 6

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

SSI IPO

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

Grok 6 will be released

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Anthropic will release an image/video model

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

NO

NO

YES

NO

YES

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

Speedup, below -5%

+15% to +20%

-5% to 0%

0% to +5%

+10% to +15%

Slowdown, above +20%

+5% to +10%

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Balkanization/long civil war

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Voluntary transition of power

YES

NO