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Prediction markets for Active
What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)
Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM
56.58%chance
141101372
OptionProbability
1447
1232
OptionProbability
38
10
4
3
1
1
OptionProbability
91
54
17
13
How many active mana traders will Manifold have (7 day average) at the end of 2026?
Sep 15, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2411118
OptionProbability
58
48
26
13
7
5
OptionProbability
69
21
6
2
1
0
Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?
Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.56%chance
543879
OptionVotes
2874
387
Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?
Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
44%chance
632967
OptionVotes
1078
855
Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?
May 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
74.76%chance
201911
OptionVotes
1721
581
Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?
Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
18%chance
331723
OptionVotes
999
822
Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?
Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
55.84%chance
301176
OptionVotes
1085
858
Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?
Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30%chance
20808
OptionVotes
1002
990
Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?
Dec 26, 2:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
49.56%chance
9295
OptionVotes
144
109
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