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Top stories

Insta360 Debuts Go Ultra Camera, Boosting 4K Action Capture

Insta360 Debuts Go Ultra Camera, Boosting 4K Action Capture

Authors

6

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Active

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.58%chance

141101372

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1447

1232

Bluesky active users in December 2026

May 23, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9278187

OptionProbability

Above 1 million

Above 2 million

Above 5 million

Above 10 million

Above 50 million

Above 100 million

35

15

4

3

1

1

Manifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027

Jan 1, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4821210

OptionProbability

At least 2,000

At least 5,000

At least 10,000

At least 20,000

90

58

30

23

How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?

May 2, 5:37 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

257156

OptionProbability

Below normal (2.53 < ACE < 73)

Near-normal ( 73 < ACE < 126.1)

Above normal (126.1 < ACE < 159.6)

Hyperactive (ACE > 159.6)

Record low (ACE < 2.53)

Record high (ACE > 258.47)

51

31

13

3

1

0

How many active mana traders will Manifold have (7 day average) at the end of 2026?

Sep 15, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

225857

OptionProbability

Above 800

Above 1000

Above 1200

Above 1400

Above 1600

Above 1800

67

54

35

30

19

8

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.91%chance

543640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2635

428

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

45%chance

632824

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

834

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.84%chance

301176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

858

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.39%chance

201032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

812

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

Dec 26, 2:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.56%chance

9295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

109

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Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Wearables
AI Products
Tech
Insta360 Debuts Go Ultra Camera, Boosting 4K Action Capture
Authors
6
10 months ago

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