AI Action Plan News

7 months ago

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

1516

660

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

17.55%chance

141436

OptionVotes

YES

2168

461

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

YES

1017

852

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

67.92%chance

211112

OptionVotes

YES

145

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

YES

1118

699

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

1368

731

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

YES

1051

819

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.02%chance

13293

OptionVotes

YES

248

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Jan 21, 9:03 PMJan 21, 9:03 PM

2225

OptionProbability

After

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

Mar 12, 5:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.86%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

161

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

What will happen to the 2027 MLB regular season if a lockout or player strike occurs?

Mar 3, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

1–15 games missed (minor disruption)

0 games missed (full 162-game season played)

16–60 games missed (major disruption)

61+ games missed / season canceled

MLB labor disputes will not result in a lockout or player strike.

Latest stories

Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
US Foreign Policy
Policy
Politics
Trump Asserts U.S. Leads China in Artificial Intelligence Race
Authors
6
7 months ago

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

WhatsApp
Top Stories
Join
Telegram
Top Stories
Join

AI Action Plan News

Top stories

Prediction markets for AI Action Plan

Prediction markets for AI Action Plan

Prediction markets for AI Action Plan

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

What will happen to the 2027 MLB regular season if a lockout or player strike occurs?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram