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Top stories

US Foreign Policy

Trump Asserts U.S. Leads China in Artificial Intelligence Race

Authors

6

10 months ago

Prediction markets for AI Action Plan

Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?

May 13, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

142159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2844

352

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

11.73%chance

152011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2743

365

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

70.03%chance

231293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.06%chance

3526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1521

836

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Jan 21, 9:03 PMJan 21, 9:03 PM

2225

OptionProbability

After

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

64

24

17

10

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

Mar 12, 5:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

Latest stories

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Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
US Foreign Policy
Policy
Politics
Trump Asserts U.S. Leads China in Artificial Intelligence Race
Authors
6
10 months ago

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