AI Action Plan News

1 year ago

Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?

May 13, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.27%chance

152279

OptionVotes

YES

2956

338

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

10.68%chance

152161

OptionVotes

YES

2893

346

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.97%chance

212082

OptionVotes

YES

1529

654

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

78.58%chance

261906

OptionVotes

YES

192

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

YES

1017

852

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

YES

1118

699

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

1368

731

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

YES

1031

884

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

4531

OptionVotes

YES

1500

841

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.02%chance

13293

OptionVotes

YES

248

What will happen to the 2027 MLB regular season if a lockout or player strike occurs?

Mar 3, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

688

OptionProbability

1–15 games missed (minor disruption)

16–60 games missed (major disruption)

61+ games missed / season canceled

0 games missed (full 162-game season played)

MLB labor disputes will not result in a lockout or player strike.

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Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

What will happen to the 2027 MLB regular season if a lockout or player strike occurs?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

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