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Prediction markets for AI Action Plan
OptionVotes
3043
329
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?
May 13, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.27%chance
152279
OptionVotes
2956
338
Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?
Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.97%chance
212082
OptionVotes
1529
654
2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
26.97%chance
251329
OptionVotes
1017
852
Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?
Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
35.54%chance
17971
OptionVotes
1118
699
Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?
Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.82%chance
11970
OptionVotes
1368
731
OptionVotes
1015
943
Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)
Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM
19.37%chance
4531
OptionVotes
1500
841
Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?
Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.91%chance
7487
OptionVotes
1319
797
Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?
Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
86.02%chance
13293
OptionVotes
248
40
OptionVotes
171
59
[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year
Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
570
OptionProbability
66
60
46
44
16
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