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Prediction markets for Answering the Call
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.12%chance
3612488
OptionVotes
19925
5019
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
Sep 23, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
58.57%chance
889441
OptionVotes
1058
881
When will a regular person be able to use AI to answer phone calls for them?
Mar 20, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
423590
OptionProbability
87
80
79
65
56
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1600
888
LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?
Oct 31, 1:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
60.49%chance
233005
OptionVotes
1237
808
OptionVotes
1468
681
Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026?
Feb 1, 4:35 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM
75.64%chance
81124
OptionVotes
1762
568
Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
27.15%chance
17792
OptionVotes
990
970
OptionVotes
3619
3387
OptionVotes
1038
977
Who during, the next Congress, will call on the next Senate to eliminate or limit the filibuster? [Add Answers]
Nov 13, 12:11 AMJan 4, 4:59 AM
2393
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029
Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
57%chance
9301
OptionVotes
1151
869