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US Ambassador to NATO Urges European Role, Says Ukraine Security Guarantee Means Alliance Without NATO Participation

7 months ago

Ukraine

War

US Foreign Policy

Lavrov Pushback on Ukraine Guarantees Derails US-Russia Peace Talks

7 months ago

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.61%chance

6913547

OptionVotes

YES

1659

197

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

36.31%chance

5711924

OptionVotes

YES

1395

643

Will I post 2 articles on my Substack between 16Mar - 23Mar

Mar 15, 10:52 PMMar 23, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

182688

OptionVotes

YES

1455

687

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Feb 18, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.46%chance

142255

OptionVotes

YES

1583

632

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

1074

931

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.31%chance

101108

OptionVotes

YES

3585

2721

Will Article 7 of the EU be employed against Hungary before 2027?

Jan 15, 11:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.67%chance

19816

OptionVotes

YES

1165

923

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.92%chance

16608

OptionVotes

YES

1043

966

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

28.57%chance

10439

OptionVotes

YES

1077

961

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Jan 1, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.07%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

1275

784

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Aug 21, 1:28 PMDec 31, 2:21 PM

63.08%chance

6420

OptionVotes

YES

1307

765

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

7236

OptionVotes

YES

1084

923

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Prediction markets for Article

Prediction markets for Article

Prediction markets for Article

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will I post 2 articles on my Substack between 16Mar - 23Mar

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Will Article 7 of the EU be employed against Hungary before 2027?

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?

Latest stories

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