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Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?
Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
73.61%chance
6913547
OptionVotes
1659
197
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
45%chance
6012466
OptionVotes
1187
785
Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?
Dec 29, 11:49 PMDec 29, 11:49 PM
23.41%chance
92245
OptionVotes
1809
553
Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years
Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM
46.43%chance
91725
OptionVotes
1074
931
Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028
Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
40.31%chance
101108
OptionVotes
3585
2721
Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?
Apr 3, 4:54 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM
23.31%chance
21677
OptionVotes
1344
861
In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?
Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
40.92%chance
16608
OptionVotes
1043
966
Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?
Aug 21, 1:28 PMDec 31, 2:21 PM
59.21%chance
8485
OptionVotes
1205
830
Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?
Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM
28.57%chance
10439
OptionVotes
1077
961
Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?
Jan 1, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.07%chance
6425
OptionVotes
1275
784
Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.16%chance
12264
OptionVotes
1003
999
Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?
Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54%chance
7236
OptionVotes
1084
923
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