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US Ambassador to NATO Urges European Role, Says Ukraine Security Guarantee Means Alliance Without NATO Participation

1 year ago

Ukraine

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Lavrov Pushback on Ukraine Guarantees Derails US-Russia Peace Talks

1 year ago

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

66.88%chance

6313748

OptionVotes

YES

1293

793

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.61%chance

6913547

OptionVotes

YES

1659

197

Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?

Dec 29, 11:49 PMDec 29, 11:49 PM

22.44%chance

102295

OptionVotes

YES

1859

538

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

1074

931

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.31%chance

101108

OptionVotes

YES

3585

2721

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:54 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

31%chance

22792

OptionVotes

YES

1031

977

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.8%chance

17658

OptionVotes

YES

1016

975

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025 (58)?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.75%chance

9636

OptionVotes

YES

1484

674

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

36%chance

11546

OptionVotes

YES

1068

851

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Aug 21, 1:28 PMDec 31, 2:21 PM

59.21%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

1205

830

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Jan 1, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.07%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

1275

784

Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?

Jun 26, 1:08 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

44.09%chance

6144

OptionVotes

YES

1126

888

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Prediction markets for Article

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By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025 (58)?

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?

Latest stories

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