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US Ambassador to NATO Urges European Role, Says Ukraine Security Guarantee Means Alliance Without NATO Participation

10 months ago

Ukraine

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US Foreign Policy

Lavrov Pushback on Ukraine Guarantees Derails US-Russia Peace Talks

10 months ago

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.61%chance

6913547

OptionVotes

YES

1659

197

Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?

Dec 29, 11:49 PMDec 29, 11:49 PM

23.41%chance

92245

OptionVotes

YES

1809

553

NY Times runs an article or editorial suggesting renaming The White House

Jan 9, 4:20 AMMay 16, 6:59 AM

12.24%chance

311788

OptionVotes

YES

1876

801

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

1074

931

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.31%chance

101108

OptionVotes

YES

3585

2721

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:54 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

31%chance

22792

OptionVotes

YES

1031

977

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.72%chance

13664

OptionVotes

YES

1403

818

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025 (58)?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.75%chance

9636

OptionVotes

YES

1484

674

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.92%chance

16608

OptionVotes

YES

1043

966

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

36%chance

11546

OptionVotes

YES

1068

851

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Aug 21, 1:28 PMDec 31, 2:21 PM

59.21%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

1205

830

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Jan 1, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.07%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

1275

784

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Prediction markets for Article

Prediction markets for Article

Prediction markets for Article

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?

NY Times runs an article or editorial suggesting renaming The White House

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025 (58)?

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Latest stories

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