Article News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Article
Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?
Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
68.47%chance
6813447
OptionVotes
1559
237
OptionVotes
1716
583
Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years
Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM
46.43%chance
91725
OptionVotes
1074
931
Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028
Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
41.28%chance
101033
OptionVotes
3510
2773
Will Article 7 of the EU be employed against Hungary before 2027?
Jan 15, 11:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
26.71%chance
17714
OptionVotes
1163
924
Within a month of Silksong's release, would several large gaming outlets publish articles about its difficulty?
Apr 5, 8:18 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
76.39%chance
19699
OptionVotes
1152
920
Will Macron's english wikipedia article mention the 2025 apparent domestic violence incident by mid 2026
Jun 2, 6:02 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM
35.42%chance
14687
OptionVotes
1350
741
In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?
Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
40.92%chance
16608
OptionVotes
1043
966
Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?
Apr 3, 4:54 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM
23.12%chance
18569
OptionVotes
1353
858
Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?
Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM
30%chance
10389
OptionVotes
1027
982
Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.16%chance
12264
OptionVotes
1000
996
Will Aella reference Impro in her latest Substack article series on status?
Jul 3, 4:41 AMDec 31, 5:40 AM
52.18%chance
483
OptionVotes
1045
957