Article News

US Ambassador to NATO Urges European Role, Says Ukraine Security Guarantee Means Alliance Without NATO Participation

9 months ago

Ukraine

War

US Foreign Policy

Lavrov Pushback on Ukraine Guarantees Derails US-Russia Peace Talks

9 months ago

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.61%chance

6913547

OptionVotes

YES

1659

197

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

45%chance

6012466

OptionVotes

YES

1187

785

Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?

Dec 29, 11:49 PMDec 29, 11:49 PM

23.41%chance

92245

OptionVotes

YES

1809

553

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

1074

931

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.31%chance

101108

OptionVotes

YES

3585

2721

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:54 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

23.31%chance

21677

OptionVotes

YES

1344

861

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.92%chance

16608

OptionVotes

YES

1043

966

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Aug 21, 1:28 PMDec 31, 2:21 PM

59.21%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

1205

830

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

28.57%chance

10439

OptionVotes

YES

1077

961

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Jan 1, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.07%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

1275

784

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.16%chance

12264

OptionVotes

YES

1003

999

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

7236

OptionVotes

YES

1084

923

Latest stories

Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Ukraine
War
US Foreign Policy
Lavrov Pushback on Ukraine Guarantees Derails US-Russia Peace Talks
Authors
5
9 months ago
Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Ukraine
War
US Foreign Policy
US Ambassador to NATO Urges European Role, Says Ukraine Security Guarantee Means Alliance Without NATO Participation
Authors
6
9 months ago

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

WhatsApp
Top Stories
Join
Telegram
Top Stories
Join

Article News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Article

Prediction markets for Article

Prediction markets for Article

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram