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Prediction markets for Assistant
Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?
Jan 4, 11:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.33%chance
323958
OptionVotes
2084
90
Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?
Jan 8, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
55%chance
352427
OptionVotes
1025
966
Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2035?
Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
27.78%chance
52305
OptionVotes
1612
620
Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?
Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
61.4%chance
341368
OptionVotes
999
986
Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?
May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM
22.82%chance
111221
OptionVotes
1842
547
Will number of physician assisted suicides in Canada be above 17,500 in 2026?
Jan 15, 4:05 PMJan 16, 4:04 PM
76.98%chance
111158
OptionVotes
1829
547
Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?
Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
80.33%chance
32964
OptionVotes
1312
881
Will access to social assistance be automated in France before 2027 ?
Jun 20, 9:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
35.19%chance
11258
OptionVotes
1097
953
Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2035?
Aug 3, 3:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
43.83%chance
5256
OptionVotes
1132
883
Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users on any platform by end-2026?
Sep 23, 2:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
52.09%chance
3152
OptionVotes
1043
959
Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2045?
Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
54.97%chance
2105
OptionVotes
1105
905
Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2045?
Aug 3, 3:38 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
52.36%chance
150
OptionVotes
1048
954
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