Aug News

Ohio Man Charged After Sex Toy Hits Girl at Liberty Game

9 months ago

Patriots Rookies Henderson, Chism Lift New England Over Vikings 20-12

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Patriots Rookies Henderson, Chism Lift New England Over Vikings 20-12

9 months ago

Browns Elevate Rookie Dillon Gabriel to Backup QB; Shedeur Sanders Falls to No. 3

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Browns Elevate Rookie Dillon Gabriel to Backup QB; Shedeur Sanders Falls to No. 3

8 months ago

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

Aug 13, 1:00 PMAug 13, 10:59 PM

22.66%chance

17828284

OptionVotes

YES

6181

1678

Ashwin returns to US by Aug 19th 2026?

Aug 20, 3:47 AMAug 19, 11:59 PM

29.86%chance

52149

OptionVotes

YES

153

Will Apple start making a new iPhone mini before 7th Aug 2028?

Aug 7, 2:43 PMAug 7, 10:59 PM

21.97%chance

181196

OptionVotes

YES

1063

481

Dwarkesh's mystery guest revealed by Aug 21, 2026?

Aug 30, 2:15 AMAug 21, 11:59 PM

7.55%chance

13800

OptionVotes

YES

350

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

5384

OptionProbability

> 500,000

180,001–280,000

280,001–500,000

≤ 180,000

Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?

Apr 16, 5:41 PMSep 1, 10:00 PM

55%chance

9220

OptionVotes

YES

137

Will Iran's food stockpile run out before Aug 2, 2026?

May 2, 1:12 AMAug 2, 1:12 AM

14.43%chance

8220

OptionVotes

YES

244

My manifold networth by Aug '26? [2]

Dec 8, 9:04 PMAug 2, 3:59 AM

3187

OptionProbability

Above 16,000

Above 32,000

Above 64,000

Above 128,000

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, through which country will it happen?

Jul 8, 10:15 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

6167

OptionProbability

Other country, unlisted here by the time the first suspect case arises

Venezuela

Other

Haiti

Brazil

Dominican Republic

Peru

Argentina

Bahamas

Ecuador

Panama

Suriname

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country?

Jul 8, 10:26 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

15.45%chance

392

OptionVotes

YES

178

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Apr 7, 9:41 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029

Sep-Dec 2029

Manifold Lottery (Weekly, ends Aug 18)

Aug 11, 5:33 PMAug 12, 6:59 AM

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Aug News

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Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

Ashwin returns to US by Aug 19th 2026?

Will Apple start making a new iPhone mini before 7th Aug 2028?

Dwarkesh's mystery guest revealed by Aug 21, 2026?

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?

Will Iran's food stockpile run out before Aug 2, 2026?

My manifold networth by Aug '26? [2]

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, through which country will it happen?

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country?

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Manifold Lottery (Weekly, ends Aug 18)

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