Aug News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Aug
OptionProbability
95
2
1
1
1
Will Apple start making a new iPhone mini before 7th Aug 2028?
Aug 7, 2:43 PMAug 7, 10:59 PM
12.46%chance
181596
OptionVotes
984
881
Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
Aug 6, 4:12 AMAug 6, 12:00 AM
96.8%chance
91155
OptionVotes
517
15
Will El Niño break NOAA's all-time record? The official ONI value for Aug–Oct 2026 (record: +2.59)
Oct 23, 7:24 PMNov 12, 11:59 PM
4406
OptionProbability
97
1
1
1
Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 10+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
Aug 6, 4:36 PMAug 6, 12:00 AM
45.29%chance
16268
OptionVotes
106
95
If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, through which country will it happen?
Jul 8, 10:15 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM
8180
OptionProbability
38
29
26
6
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country?
Jul 8, 10:26 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM
15.45%chance
392
OptionVotes
178
54
OptionProbability
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20
OptionProbability
17
17
17
17
17
17
OptionProbability
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
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