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Top stories

Brazil Orders Meta to Remove AI Chatbots Sexualizing Children

Brazil Orders Meta to Remove AI Chatbots Sexualizing Children

Authors

10

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Community Standards

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12977154

OptionProbability

Massive fraud

Multiple counts of perjury

Advanced human technology

Non-human intelligence

36

31

24

9

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?

Aug 5, 8:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.78%chance

4113609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4823

813

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?

Aug 23, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.9%chance

512833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2059

657

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

50.65%chance

7826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

Where will my single hot friend find her man?

Nov 9, 7:10 PMDec 31, 6:43 PM

14574

OptionProbability

Other

At an EA (Effective Altruism) conference

LessWrong (LW) Meetup

Bay Area Taco Tuesday

Manifold Markets Manifest

Secular Solstice

66

7

7

7

7

6

Will ""AI achieves silver-medal standard solving In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 26, 6:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

3392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

948

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

5384

OptionProbability

> 500,000

180,001–280,000

280,001–500,000

≤ 180,000

35

25

25

15

Will ZFC prove a contradiction by 2100?

Jul 26, 4:26 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

7%chance

8332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

364

27

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will "Generalized Hangriness: A Standard Rationalis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 3:28 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "The Standard Analogy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 5, 12:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Brazil
Policy
Tech
Brazil Orders Meta to Remove AI Chatbots Sexualizing Children
Authors
10
4 months ago

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