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Top stories

Brazil Orders Meta to Remove AI Chatbots Sexualizing Children

Brazil Orders Meta to Remove AI Chatbots Sexualizing Children

Authors

10

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Community Standards

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12977307

OptionProbability

Massive fraud

Multiple counts of perjury

Advanced human technology

Non-human intelligence

36

31

23

9

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?

Aug 5, 8:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.31%chance

4315614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6453

794

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?

Aug 23, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.43%chance

522883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2109

648

Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI

Apr 25, 5:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

81027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

Where will my single hot friend find her man?

Nov 9, 7:10 PMDec 31, 6:43 PM

14574

OptionProbability

Other

At an EA (Effective Altruism) conference

LessWrong (LW) Meetup

Bay Area Taco Tuesday

Manifold Markets Manifest

Secular Solstice

66

7

7

7

7

6

Will ZFC prove a contradiction by 2100?

Jul 26, 4:26 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

7.48%chance

9333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

352

28

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Jul 22, 1:05 PMJan 1, 5:14 PM

67.91%chance

8146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.11%chance

3111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

73

In Mario Kart World, will players be able to reliably avoid highway tracks in public matchmaking in 2026?

Jan 13, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.51%chance

372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

951

Will "Generalized Hangriness: A Standard Rationalis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 3:28 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

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Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Brazil
Policy
Tech
Brazil Orders Meta to Remove AI Chatbots Sexualizing Children
Authors
10
10 months ago

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