Community Standards News
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Prediction markets for Community Standards
OptionProbability
33
31
26
10
OptionVotes
3823
834
Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.96%chance
123209
OptionVotes
6132
3376
Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?
Aug 23, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
14.9%chance
512833
OptionVotes
2059
657
Will evidence come to light by 2028 that microplastics have meaningfully lowered testosterone levels? (READ DESCRIPTION)
Dec 30, 3:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10.95%chance
121240
OptionVotes
285
35
Will ""AI achieves silver-medal standard solving In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jul 26, 6:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10%chance
3392
OptionVotes
1389
948
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
OptionVotes
200
50
OptionVotes
194
51
Will glueballs be definitively observed experimentally by the end of 2035?
Apr 5, 8:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
57.2%chance
892
OptionVotes
190
151
Will "Generalized Hangriness: A Standard Rationalis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 11, 3:28 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
114
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "The Standard Analogy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jul 5, 12:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000