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Prediction markets for Conservatives
Will Colorado Proposition 137 (sporting goods tax for conservation) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Oct 6, 6:38 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM
97.87%chance
1611026
OptionVotes
8071
333
Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?
Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM
24.87%chance
287920
OptionVotes
3511
1108
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM
5.22%chance
227665
OptionVotes
4263
235
Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
1.62%chance
307635
OptionVotes
6842
711
When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?
Apr 12, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
336819
OptionProbability
40
18
14
10
5
3
3
2
2
2
Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?
Jul 10, 3:40 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM
70.97%chance
346153
OptionVotes
2432
809
Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?
Jan 6, 4:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
71.19%chance
315917
OptionVotes
1152
516
Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
Jul 31, 2:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
74.53%chance
322998
OptionVotes
1711
585
OptionVotes
972
933
Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?
Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.26%chance
18788
OptionVotes
1059
954
Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?
Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM
15.36%chance
11571
OptionVotes
1322
912
Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?
Dec 12, 11:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
64.83%chance
12227
OptionVotes
1074
941
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