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Prediction markets for Conservatives
When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?
Apr 12, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
336719
OptionProbability
40
18
14
10
5
3
3
2
2
2
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM
15.45%chance
206717
OptionVotes
2340
427
Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?
Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM
52.71%chance
245995
OptionVotes
2063
1941
Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?
Jan 6, 4:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
42.49%chance
274462
OptionVotes
1165
861
Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?
Jul 10, 3:40 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM
33.49%chance
324282
OptionVotes
1933
1197
Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
Jul 31, 2:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
84.34%chance
232261
OptionVotes
2321
431
Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
7.79%chance
251736
OptionVotes
1672
889
OptionVotes
972
933
Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?
Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.26%chance
18788
OptionVotes
1059
954
Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?
Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM
15.36%chance
11571
OptionVotes
1322
912
Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?
Dec 12, 11:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
64.83%chance
12227
OptionVotes
1074
941
If Trump is president, will the Supreme Court be 7-2 conservative before 2033 Inauguration
Nov 6, 4:25 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM
43.83%chance
225
OptionVotes
113
88
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