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Top stories

Ron Gilbert Unveils ‘Death by Scrolling’ Roguelike at Gamescom

Ron Gilbert Unveils ‘Death by Scrolling’ Roguelike at Gamescom

Authors

5

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Death

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

31374211

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

1000-1500

5000+

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

84

11

2

2

1

0

0

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

1344

Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?

Mar 19, 2:07 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

62%chance

11043976

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1431

216

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.75%chance

10842699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11769

8879

Will Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death?

May 24, 10:25 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM

16.95%chance

28335228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3402

2097

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 1, 5:59 AM

68.85%chance

8231999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1580

266

What will be Trump's cause of death?

Mar 31, 8:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10322648

OptionProbability

Heart Attack

Other

Stroke

Assassination

Cancer

38

26

16

12

9

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

50.13%chance

9720091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2092

1887

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516515

OptionProbability

Palantir

OpenAI

Other

xAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

17

15

15

13

11

10

7

6

5

1

1

Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

Dec 29, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.3%chance

22898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

962

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.96%chance

9573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

372

367

What Position will the 7th Death on the DeathList 2026 be?

May 7, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

1-9

11-19

21-30

31-40

41-50

20

20

20

20

20

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Video Games
Culture
Ron Gilbert Unveils ‘Death by Scrolling’ Roguelike at Gamescom
Authors
5
9 months ago

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