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Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM
15%chance
10248838
OptionVotes
1879
1284
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.6%chance
10842720
OptionVotes
11866
8858
Will Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death?
May 24, 10:25 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM
17.93%chance
28335397
OptionVotes
3233
2133
Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war
Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 23, 5:59 AM
70%chance
8834622
OptionVotes
1603
256
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
51.06%chance
10927408
OptionVotes
2056
1924
OptionProbability
34
28
19
11
8
If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?
Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8616676
OptionProbability
16
16
15
14
11
10
7
6
4
1
1
OptionVotes
1618
876
Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?
Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18.64%chance
447180
OptionVotes
2275
1634
OptionVotes
4002
1333
Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?
Dec 29, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.91%chance
25971
OptionVotes
1186
957
What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?
Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
47.96%chance
10588
OptionVotes
372
367
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