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Prediction markets for Die Hard
Will this question get 1,000 traders in 1,000 days? (January 11, 2028) UTC
Apr 16, 8:48 AMJan 12, 1:00 AM
11214506
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
91
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will at least one human be cured of a prion disease by EOY 2045?
Apr 28, 11:11 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM
77.92%chance
379565
OptionVotes
1629
729
Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
Jul 6, 12:09 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM
49.09%chance
75545
OptionVotes
1018
982
Which of these movie franchises with 5 entries will get a 6th released before Jan 1st 2028?
Jan 19, 3:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
213037
OptionProbability
100
100
100
95
94
94
79
72
58
25
24
19
18
OptionVotes
10022
9661
OptionVotes
1098
770
In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?
Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM
57.09%chance
24626
OptionVotes
1037
924
In what order will the remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved?
Sep 15, 7:59 PMJan 1, 3:01 PM
22516
OptionProbability
84
78
40
36
21
Will flatback posture be confirmed as the primary cause of schizophrenia by 2030?
Aug 16, 4:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
5.1%chance
16437
OptionVotes
1388
920
OptionProbability
39
35
19
17
13
13
9
9
7
6
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
OptionVotes
10029
9564
Will Jose Luis Ricon LOL/ROFL so hard he will almost die in 2025/2026?
Aug 9, 6:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
36.06%chance
461
OptionVotes
133
75
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