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Prediction markets for Doom
If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)
Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
19.5%chance
262479246
OptionVotes
10207
8290
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
56%chance
20846475
OptionVotes
2518
1141
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
Feb 13, 4:54 PMJan 1, 12:30 PM
22.6%chance
6118588
OptionVotes
1391
838
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
May 14, 7:54 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM
14.01%chance
879220
OptionVotes
2170
883
OptionVotes
1191
840
What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?
Jan 26, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.02%chance
582542
OptionVotes
1867
1852
Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)
Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
42.96%chance
291950
OptionVotes
1239
762
Will someone play Doom on the Moon by the end of 2060?
Apr 3, 4:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
79.56%chance
221095
OptionVotes
1236
907
Will more than one MF DOOM song be played during the MCU film DOOMSDAY?
Aug 17, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
27.46%chance
11811
OptionVotes
1625
615
OptionVotes
1004
972
Will Doctor Doom be alive at the end of Avengers: Secret Wars?
May 14, 2:36 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM
65.64%chance
9539
OptionVotes
1382
724
Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027
Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.62%chance
12205
OptionVotes
1071
966
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