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Prediction markets for Eastern Europe
OptionProbability
98
25
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.26%chance
224741
OptionVotes
5159
2655
Will the American Bullfrog (Aquarana catesbeianus) become extinct in the current century?
Mar 28, 11:28 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
2.18%chance
41155
OptionVotes
1654
352
OptionVotes
1572
636
If the US buys Greenland and makes it a state, will it vote for a Democrat in the subsequent presidential election?
Dec 6, 8:43 PMNov 19, 9:59 PM
78.32%chance
11528
OptionVotes
190
53
OptionVotes
104
61
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
63.06%chance
8279
OptionVotes
105
103
OptionProbability
95
88
66
66
66
53
39
Will there be a ceasfire in Ukraine at the end of 2027?
Mar 16, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.6%chance
9151
OptionVotes
141
71
Will a Global South pavilion win the Golden Lion at Venice 2026?
Feb 16, 11:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
53.84%chance
280
OptionVotes
1080
926
OptionProbability
56
16
16
13
OptionVotes
71
68
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