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Evolution News

    Prediction markets for Evolution

    OptionProbability

    A person has a moral right to own a gun

    We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

    GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

    The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

    Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

    Other

    Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

    Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

    Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

    Being a billionaire is morally wrong

    The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

    It is not possible to multitask

    Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

    Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

    Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

    Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

    OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

    The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

    There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

    Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

    Tech bros are really, really annoying

    Capitalism has done far more harm than good

    Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

    Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

    We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

    COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

    Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

    California is wildly overrated.

    Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

    Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

    Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

    Music is a net negative for humanity

    Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

    Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

    Abortion is morally wrong

    jskf's password is ***************

    The first American moon landing was faked

    There is no Dog

    Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

    Cars should not have sound systems

    AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

    Pet ownership is morally wrong

    LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

    SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

    It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

    There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

    Cascadia should be an independent country

    Children should not be raised in nuclear families

    The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

    Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

    If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

    Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

    @Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

    Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

    [PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

    [PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

    We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

    [PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

    SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

    Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

    The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

    Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

    Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

    It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

    This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

    Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

    The next American moon landing will be faked

    Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

    We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

    Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

    Cars are a societal net negative

    Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

    Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

    Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.

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    Which of these movies/TV series will I enjoy?

    Mar 4, 3:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    201301

    OptionProbability

    Trainspotting

    Prisoners

    Wolfwalkers

    Parasite

    Amadeus

    Nightcrawler

    Whiplash

    The Grand Budapest Hotel

    Moonrise Kingdom

    Silo

    Ice Road: Vengeance

    Blade Runner

    Godzilla Minus One

    The Creator

    The World's End

    Firefly Serenity

    Galaxy Quest

    Evolution

    Iron Man I

    The LOTR trilogy, extended editions

    10 Cloverfield Lane

    Avatar: The Way of Water

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    OptionProbability

    Eevee

    Hypno

    Cloyster

    Granbull

    Jynx

    Golduck

    Kabutops

    Ninetales

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    Will any pokemon have 4 stages of evolution by the end of 2029?

    Sep 14, 3:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    43.25%chance
    2138

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    115

    87

    Will Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028?

    May 12, 1:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    34%chance
    679

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    139

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    OptionProbability

    I get my car a very weird paint job which would make it unsellable

    Will go to edge Esmeralda (in any capacity, at least one event)

    Will get cavity preventing bacteria

    Japan JET Reunion 2025

    I buy a video camera that can record for 24h+ and record various public places

    Pickleball tournament

    I use computer vision to run diy studies of politeness behavior, grouped by car brand etc

    I start an AI beauty/art twitter and get 1k followers

    I document a method of self modifying an SLR by blackening all surfaces

    Publish and finish personal)group predictions tracking software

    AI phrenology - publish a doc on a study of AI image generation models differential portrayals of previously very hard to measure aspects of the human condition such as facial shape linkages to personality

    Build a personal pickleball court and attract community members to play there

    Surreptitiously construct additional pickleball courts at Foster City

    Publish an edited dashcam video of all the things I've filmed with the Tesla ssd

    Tool to view twitter as someone else. Given that follows are public this should be easy

    Create a nice Tesla models y fold over screen cover with cutouts for vital areas only. Makes night driving much easier. No need for a distracting map view if you're not turning for 200 miles

    I off road hike far into iron point outside Golconda, NV

    I set a personal daily mileage record

    Make balatro mod which shows currently selected hand score if played (ie everyone's need for this otherwise great game)

    Get gphotos to fix any of their innumerable UI bugs by complaining

    Have a sci-fi story published online somewhere

    Make neighborhood intro video with stories etc

    Will go to a natal conference again

    Local Free library and bulletin board at my place

    Overland trek to CITY in Nevada, an off-limits experimental art city which has been in progress for over 50 years

    Go to Mexico to see Trevor Bauer play

    Go see the Starship 4 launch in Texas in 2024

    Release "Reading the mind in the AI generated images"

    Get over 1k users for my browser extension

    Ship something involving image => description => more images to users

    I go to West Africa and go to concerts, visit Nollywood etc

    I write a science fiction novel about aliens who experiment with forced evolution

    Browser extension to add metadata on all people's names, relating to their offspring number, success, etc

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    Will the final evolution of Pombon be bipedal?

    Sep 23, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    47.45%chance
    523

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    105

    95

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